Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date: 2026/8/9 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【Côte d'Ivoire Rubber Exports Fall 2% YoY in First Seven Months】 Côte d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.06 million tonnes in the first seven months of 2026, down 2% YoY from 1.08 million tonnes inthe same period of 2025, according to the latest data fromQinRex. In July alone, exports fell 15.6% YoY and rose 1.5% MoM. Côted'Ivoire is a major natural rubber producer in Africa. The country's rubber exports have grown year after year in recent years,drivenby farmers shifting from cocoa to rubber cultivation in pursuit of stable returns. 2.【Indonesia's H1 Natural Rubber and Mixture Rubber Combined Exports Down 16% YoY】 Indonesia's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 0.649 million tonnes in H1 2026, down 23% YoY, accordingtoQinRexdata. By grade: TSR 0.634 million tonnes, down 23% YoY; RSS 0.015 million tonnes, down 17% YoY; latex 0.0003 milliontonnes, down 25% YoY. In January–June, natural rubber shipments to China totaled 0.078 million tonnes, down 51% YoY, whileMixture rubber exports to China totaled 0.055 million tonnes, jumping 162% YoY. Combined, Indonesia's natural rubber and Mixturerubber exports in H1 reached 0.724 million tonnes, down 16% YoY, of which shipments to China totaled 0.133 million tonnes, down26% YoY. Industry News 3.【USTMA: 2026 U.S. Tire Shipments Forecast to Fall 1.8%】 QinRexreported from the U.S. on August 6 that the U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) projected in July 2026 that totalU.S. tire shipments would fall 1.8% to 330.3 million units in 2026, below 336.3 million units in 2025 and 332.7 million units in 2019.Vs. 2025, OE shipments of PCR, LTR and TBR are projected to fall 0.7%, 1.9%, and rise 6.2%, respectively, for a combined decline of0.1 million units. Replacement shipments of PCR, LTR and TBR are also projected to fall 1.6%, 1.6%, and 7.1%, respectively,totaling a5.9-million-unit decline. 4.【European Replacement Tire Market Sales Rise 3.1% in Q2】 The European Tire and Rubber Manufacturers' Association (ETRMA) released market data on August 6 showing Q2 2026 Europeanreplacement tire market sales rose 3.1% YoY to 57.38 million units. Breakdown: PCR sales rose 3% YoY to 51.987 million units; TBRshipments rose 13% YoY to 2.704 million units; agricultural tire shipments fell 7% YoY to 0.09 million units; motorcycle/scooter tireshipments rose 1% YoY to 2.599 million units. ETRMA's Secretary General said Europe's replacement tire market recovery wouldbroaden in Q2, especially for truck and bus tires, even as geopolitical issues and elevated fuel and energy costs continue tounderpin freight activity and business confidence. Market trends Futures Prices ➢This week, frequent rainfall disruptions in domestic producing regions kept feedstock supply tight, with offers but no dealsconcluded. In Thailand,factories stepped up shipment willingness and cup lump procurement prices halted their decline and rebounded, with cost-side support re-emerging.Total social inventories of natural rubber continued to destock; during the week, a rubber warehouse fire incident weighed onsentiment, Thai mixturerubber spot liquidity tightened locally, and the futures-spot basis narrowed. Coupled with warming commodity sentiment, rubber prices rallied broadly. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spreads between RU-NR, RU-BR decreased, while the spreads between RU-JPX RSS3, NR-SGX TSR20increased. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢This week, imported rubber market offers rose; traderspurchased in-stock and nearby spot rubber while sellingforward spot to lock calendar spreads, with arbitrageurspartially adding to positions. Downstream restockingsentiment weakened, with a wait-and-see stance prevailing.Domestic natural rubber spot prices trended higher; thefutures market edged up, boosting trading sentiment. Holdersraised offer levels, downstream inquiries improved modestly,with cautious rigid-demand procurement and modest actualtransactions. Other Spreads: Light and DarkColoredRubber ➢The price spread of SCRWF-Thai mixture rubber narrowed, and the price spread of 3L-Thai mixture rubbernarrowed. Price of Substitutes: BR & SBR ➢Easing Middle East tensions pulled oil prices lower, withmacro guidance turning weak; persistently soft demandand weak downstream buying sentiment dragged markettransaction prices lower. Subsequently, feedstockbutadiene edged higher on supply tightening expectations,and cost-side floor support for butadiene rubberstrengthened, sending the market into an upward-probingtrend. Capital Trends Supply & Demand Data Supply: Precipitation ➢Keep an eye on rainfall di