Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date: 2026/7/26 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【Vietnam H1 Natural Rubber and Mixture Rubber Exports Down 4.8% YoY】 Vietnam's H1 2026 NR exports came in at 0.249 million tonnes, down 5% YoY from 0.262 million tonnes. By grade: standard rubber0.132 million tonnes, down 8% YoY—SVR10 0.045, SVR3L 0.046, SVRCV60 0.029 million tonnes; RSS 0.026 million tonnes, flat; latex0.091 million tonnes, down 1%. Mixture rubber exports totaled 0.406 million tonnes, down 5% YoY from 0.426 million tonnes—SVR3L mixture 0.092 million tonnes (-8%), SVR10 mixture 0.311 million tonnes (-4%), RSS3 mixture 0.0034 million tonnes (-6%). Exports to China: NR 0.041 million tonnes, down 34% YoY from 0.062 million tonnes; mixture rubber 0.405 million tonnes, down5%YoY from 0.426 million tonnes—SVR3L 0.092 (-8%), SVR10 0.311 (-4%), RSS3 0.0028 million tonnes (-7%). Combined NR & mixture rubber exports to China: 0.446 million tonnes, down 9% YoY; total combined exports 0.655 million tonnes,down 4.8% YoY from 0.688 million tonnes. 2.【Thailand H1 Natural Rubber & Mixture Rubber Exports Down 3.7% YoY】 Thailand's H1 2026 natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.203 million tonnes, down 13% YoY—standardrubber 0.673 million tonnes, down 16%; RSS 0.192 million tonnes, down 2%; latex 0.329 million tonnes, down 13%. Natural rubber exports to China came in at 0.406 million tonnes, down 27% YoY—standard rubber 0.257 million tonnes, down 28%;RSS 0.049 million tonnes, down 14%; latex 0.103 million tonnes, down 28%. Mixture rubber exports totaled 0.97 million tonnes, up 11% YoY; mixture rubber exports to China 0.969 million tonnes, up 12%YoY. Combined: natural rubber & mixture rubber exports 2.173 million tonnes, down 3.7% YoY; exports to China 1.375 million tonnes,down 3.4% YoY. Source:Qinrex Industry News 3.【Global Light Vehicle Sales Down 1% YoY to 7.62 Million Units in June】 LMC Automotive's latest report shows that June 2026 global light vehicle seasonally adjusted annualized (SAAR) sales rate held flatMoM at slightly below 90 million units/year, still well below the prior-year level. January–June cumulative sales came in at 42.70million units, down more than 3.9% YoY. June sales fell 1% YoY to 7.62 million units. June global light vehicle sales eased overall, dragged mainly by China's continued sharp decline. As fuel costs rose, China'salready-stretched market environment came under further pressure. Demand in markets outside China held relatively firm. The U.S. marketremained stable—supported by one extra selling day versus the same period last year—even amid weak consumer confidence.Western Europe also performed strongly, with the BEV lineup continuing to broaden and offering consumers more choices. With renewed escalation in Middle East tensions and the risk of higher oil prices—and their knock-on effects on fuel costs, inflation,and consumer demand—LMC holds a cautious outlook on the H2 2026 global light vehicle market. Market trends Futures Prices ➢Supply at the upstream producing regions rose, weighing on feedstock procurement prices and weakening rubber cost support. Feedstock pricesremain elevated, however, and coupled with the prospect of adverse weather disrupting output going forward, bullish market sentiment persists.China's inventories destocked smoothly, but spot inventory at Qingdao port saw slower destocking. Downstream tire productioncontrols persisted;capacity utilization stayed low, and market trading showed mild fatigue. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spreads between RU-NR, RU-JPX RSS3 increased, while the spreads between RU-BR, NR-SGX TSR20decreased. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢This week, offer prices in the imported rubber market shiftedlower; traders purchased in-stock and nearby spot rubberwhile selling forward spot to lock calendar spreads andrestocked near-month contracts, while downstream buyerscovered rigid demand only in small volumes. ➢Domestic natural rubber spot prices declined; the futuresmarket traded in a wide range with no stable center, with spotoffers trimming lower within a narrow range and wait-and-seesentiment running heavy. Actual buying interest was limited,leaving overall trading sentiment soft. Other Spreads: Light and DarkColoredRubber ➢The price spread of SCRWF-Thai mixture rubber widened, and the price spread of 3L-Thai mixture rubberwidened. Price of Substitutes: BR & SBR ➢Middle East geopolitical tensions pushed crude oil priceshigher, with butadiene continuing its upward trajectoryand cost-side support strengthening. Butadiene rubber(BR) supply saw limited changes, with partial supplyimbalances still presen