Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2026/8/16 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【Malaysia H1 natural rubber output falls 16.7% YoY】 Per Malaysia's Statistics Department on Aug 13, June natural rubber exports rose 30.8% YoY and 35.2% MoM to 38,862 tonnes, withChina taking 55.8%,followed by Germany 11.5%, the US 6.7%, Turkey 3.1%, and India 3.1%. June imports totaled 63,916 tonnes (+13.3% YoY,-15.4% MoM), mainly TSR,concentrated latex, and other natural rubber forms, sourced chiefly from Thailand, Côte d'Ivoire, the Philippines, and Myanmar.Monitorable productionreached 26,553 tonnes (+1.2% YoY, +31.5% MoM); smallholders accounted for 88.7% and state-owned estates 11.3%. H1 output fell 16.7% YoY to 136,280tonnes from 163,614 tonnes. End-June inventories stood at 129,524 tonnes (+5.2% MoM,-23.1% YoY), with processors holding 77.8%,downstream end-users 22.1%, and large estate owners 0.1%. June domestic consumption fell 0.4% YoY and 12.8% MoM to 19,315 tonnes; latex glovesled at 61.3%, tires andrubber hose 9.9%, rubber thread 15.4%, and other industries 13.4%. H1 cumulative consumption rose 2.3% YoY to 126,349 tonnesfrom 123,558 tonnes. 2.【AIRIA urges diversified natural rubber sourcing channels】 According to Indian media on Aug 11, the All India Rubber Industries Association (AIRIA) said India's natural rubber industryhas entered a new phaserequiring a diversified raw material procurement system that balances the interests of growers, processors, and exporters. AIRIAPresident Anay Gupta saidKerala should remain India's primary natural rubber producing region, while the Northeast has the potential to grow into an important secondary base.Import channels should serve as a transparent adjustment mechanism to bridge the structural supply gap and ensure stable rawmaterial supply duringsharp market volatility. Gupta noted that FY2024/25 consumption reached approximately 1.41 million tonnes, while domestic outputfell significantly short,creating a structural supply gap of over 0.5 million tonnes. Addressing this imbalance requires looking beyond total rubber output; the more critical issuesare production geography, rubber grades, processing stability, the efficient delivery of raw materials to manufacturing clusters, and the availability ofalternative supply sources when geopolitical conflicts, climate disasters, or logistics disruptions occur.Source:Qinrex Industry News 3.【Indonesian rubber smallholders pivot to oil palm】 According to Indonesian media on Aug 7,Sumaryono, a 45-year-old Indonesian smallholder, invested approximately USD 2,200 ofhis life savings three years ago to convert his plantation; his 10-hectare rubber farm has since been replanted with oil palm.Indonesia, the world's second-largest rubber supplier, accounts for 14% of global rubber output, with South Sumatra as its largestproducing region. A growing wave of rubber growers likeSumaryonoare now abandoning rubber and switching to oil palm, a shiftthat could tighten global rubber supply. In a media interview,Sumaryonosaid oil palm fruit bunches are harvested twice a monthand can be sold as fresh fruit bunches for cash, without the daily upkeep that rubber requires. Market trends Futures Prices ➢During the period, rainfall in some producing regions has affected tapping, keeping feedstock supply periodically tight and procurement priceselevated, providing strong cost support for natural rubber. Spot inventories continue to destock, and NR warehouse receipts aregradually decreasing;traders actively restocked and arbitrageplayers builtpositions, with Thai-mix spot deals continuing to trade higher. However, expectations of seasonalsupply increases cap the upside on the futures market. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spreads between NR-SGX TSR20, RU-BR decreased, while the spreads between RU-JPX RSS3increased. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢Imported rubber offers rose this week. Traders purchased in-stock and nearby spot rubber while selling forward spot tolock calendar spreads; active buying persisted, arbitragedesks added far-month longs, and downstream rigid demanddrove actual deal prices higher. The futures market held afirmer tone; domestic natural rubber spot quotes edged highertracking the market, downstream inquiry sentiment improvedmodestly, but cautious rigid-demand buying kept actual dealsmuted. Other Spreads: Light and DarkColoredRubber ➢The price spread of SCRWF-Thai mixture rubber narrowed, and the price spread of 3L-Thai mixture rubbernarrowed. Price of Substitutes: BR & SBR ➢Within the period, butadiene prices gradually pushedhigher on tightening feedstock supply expectations andexport news, with cost-side suppo