Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date: 2026/05/31 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【EU Passenger Car Sales Up 5.1% Year-on-Year in April】 Latest data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) shows EU passenger car sales rose 5.1% year-on-year to972,314 units in April 2026. Cumulative sales for the first four months increased 4.2% year-on-year, despite heightened uncertainties anddownside risks driven by geopolitical tensions. The EU market has been buoyed by strong consumer demand for electrified vehicles this year, supported by newly introduced andrevisedtax incentives across major European nations. Hybrid vehicles remain the most popular option among buyers. The market share of batteryelectric vehicles stood at 19.7%, up from 15.3% a year earlier. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles held a 9.6% share and continuedto be a topchoice for EU consumers, while conventional hybrids accounted for 38.2% of new registrations. Meanwhile, the combined marketshare ofgasoline and diesel vehicles slipped from 38.1% to 30.2% 2.【Thailand's Combined Exports of Natural Rubber & Mixture Rubber Down 3.1% YoY in First Four Months】 Latest data shows Thailand exported 861,000 tonnes of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) in the first four months of2026, a15% year-on-year decline. Broken down, standard rubber exports reached 461,000 tonnes, down 21% YoY; smoked sheet rubber stood at142,000 tonnes, down 1% YoY; latex totaled 251,000 tonnes, down 11% YoY. Over the same period, natural rubber shipments to China hit 318,000 tonnes, falling 29% YoY. Exports of standard rubber, smokedsheetrubber and latex to China were 182,000 tonnes, 44,000 tonnes and 95,000 tonnes respectively, dropping 34%, 10% and 24% YoY. Thailand’s mixture rubber exports amounted to 664,000 tonnes, rising 19% YoY, of which 663,000 tonnes were destined for China, up 20%YoY. Overall, the combined exports of natural rubber and mixture rubber from Thailandtotalled1.525 million tonnes in the first four months,down 3.1% YoY. Total shipments to China stood at 981,000 tonnes, a 2.4% year-on-year decrease.Source:Qinrex Industry News 3.【NBS: China's tire casing output up 3.5% year-on-year in April】 China produced 106.469 million tire casings in April 2026, rising 3.5% year-on-year. The cumulative output from January to Aprilhit394.199 million pieces, a 1.2% year-on-year increase. 4.【China's Tire Exports Rise 5.8% Year-on-Year in First Four Months】 Data released by China General Administration of Customs on May 18 shows China's rubber tire exports stood at 3.21 million tonsin Jan-Apr 2026, up 5.8% year-on-year; export value hit 53.8 billion yuan, down 0.1%. New pneumatic rubber tire exports reached 3.08 million tons, a 5.7% yearly increase, with export value of 51.6 billion yuan,dropping 0.2%.Exports totaled 237.38 million pieces, rising 4.7%. Automotive tire exports amounted to 2.69 million tons, up 4.8% year-on-year, valued at 43.5 billion yuan, a 1.6% decline. Market trends Futures Prices➢At the early stage of tapping in overseas producing areas, factories remain active in raw material procurement, keeping raw material prices at a high level. Supply from domestic producing areas rises steadily, while falling purchasing prices weigh on rubberprices.Domestic spot inventories of natural rubber keep declining, fueling bullish sentiment and resulting in fierce long-short competition inthe market. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spreads between RU-NR , RU-JPX RSS3 decreased, while the spreads between RU-BR , NR-SGXTSR20 increased. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢The overall basis of non-standard rubber decreased, and theprice spread between African rubber and RU continued toincreased. Other Spreads: Light and DarkColoredRubber ➢The price spread of SCRWF-Thai mixture rubber widened, and the price spread of 3L-Thai mixture rubbernarrowed. Price of Substitutes: BR & SBR ➢The butadiene rubber market trended downwardunder dual pressure from costs and demand, with theweekly average price falling sharply. Middle Easttensions eased overall, pulling down prices of crudeoil, naphtha and other feedstocks. Butadiene pricesslumped, weakening cost support. ➢Supply of butadiene rubber remained stable duringthe period, while downstream end-users showed lowwillingness to build stocks and purchased goods atlower prices merely for rigid demand. Affected byweak supply and demand, ex-factory and marketprices of butadiene rubber dropped rapidly this week. Capital Trends Supply & Demand Data Supply: Precipitation ➢Rainfall may be below average in Hainan and northeastern Thailand over the next two weeks, while precipitation insouthern Thai