Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2026/04/19 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【GACC: China's Rubber Imports Rise 0.4% YoY in Q1 2026】 According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on April 14, cited byQinRex, China imported 787,000tonnes of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in March 2026, up 3.6% from 760,000 tonnes in the same month of 2025. Inthe first quarter of 2026, total imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) reached 2.191 million tonnes, up 0.4%from2.183 million tonnes in Q1 2025. 2.【Côte d'Ivoire Rubber Exports Up 1.1% YoY in Q1】 According toQinRexdata, Côte d'Ivoire exported 483,650 tonnes of rubber in Q1 2026, up 1.1% from 478,561 tonnes in the sameperiod of 2025. March exports alone rose 5.3% year on year and 2.6% month on month. 3.【India's Natural Rubber Output Up 3.1% and Consumption Up 2.6% in 2025】 According to the latest data fromQinRex, India's natural rubber production rose 3.1% year on year to 903,000 tonnes in 2025,compared with 876,000 tonnes in the previous year. Among them, latex output fell 0.9% YoY to 106,000 tonnes; smoked sheetrubber output rose 2.7% YoY to 575,000 tonnes; standard rubber output rose 8.5% YoY to 205,000 tonnes; and other rubber outputdropped 15% YoY to 17,000 tonnes. Domestic natural rubber consumption rose 2.6% YoY to 1.438 million tonnes, versus 1.402 million tonnes a year earlier. Specifically,latex consumption rose 13.3% YoY to 119,000 tonnes; smoked sheet rubber consumption rose 2.2% YoY to 607,000 tonnes; standardrubber consumption edged down 0.3% YoY to 667,000 tonnes; and other rubber consumption surged 35% YoY to 46,000 tonnes. In addition, as the key demand sector, India's tire manufacturing industry consumed 901,000 tonnes of natural rubber in 2025,down6% YoY, while synthetic rubber consumption rose 7% to 620,000 tonnes.Source:Qinrex Industry News 4.【China's Passenger Vehicle Retail Sales Fall 15% YoY to 1.648 Million Units in March】 According to the latest data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached1.648 million units in March, down 15% year on year. Although representing a 59.4% month-on-month rebound from February’s lowduring the Spring Festival holiday, cumulative retail sales in the first quarter totaled 4.226 million units, down 17.4% YoY,casting ashadow over the full-year outlook. The pain of the "policy adjustment period" following the expiration of purchase tax incentives hasproven far more severe than expected. Overall, China's auto market in 2026 is expected to feature a "weak domestic demand, strong overseas performance" pattern with a"slow start followed by recovery". The second quarter will be critical in testing automakers’ resilience, as they need to maintainmarket share and digest inventories amid soft demand. With the fading of policy distortions and a gradual recovery in consumerconfidence, the market is expected to return to positive growth in the second half of the year. For the industry, new breakthroughs should be sought in overseas expansion, product mix optimization and tapping into nicheconsumer demand, rather than relying on aggressive stimulus policies. The toughest period is passing, but patience and resolve willstill be needed to return to growth. Market trends Futures Prices ➢Natural rubber futures were range-bound and weak both domestically and internationally this week, with NR postingthe largest decline. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spreads between RU-NR increased, while the spreads between NR-SGX TSR20 , RU-BR and RU-JPXRSS3 decreased. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢Imported rubber offered prices moved lower this week amidtraders rolling over positions across contract months, leavingspot prices weak. Active buying was seen for May/Juneloaded mixed rubber, with downstream buyers makingpurchases on rigid demand. ➢Futures traded within a range; domestic natural rubber pricestrended lower with muted inquiry sentiment. Downstreamparticipants maintained small-batch rigid-demand purchaseswhile turning more cautious. Other Spreads: Light and DarkColoredRubber ➢The price spread of SCRWF-Thai mixture rubber narrowed, and the price spread of 3L-Thai mixture rubbernarrowed. Price of Substitutes: BR & SBR ➢Declining prices of butadiene, a key feedstock, weakened costsupport, leading to lower ex-factory prices of polybutadiene rubberand dampening market sentiment. Traders were reluctant toconclude new deals and focused mainly on digesting existinginventories. ➢Furthermore, as the U.S. and Iran observed a truce and planned asecond round of negotiations, traders grew mor