Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2026/05/17 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【Malaysia’s Q1 Natural Rubber Output Down 25.3% YoY】 According to data released by Malaysia’s Department of Statistics on May 13, Malaysia’s natural rubber exports in March 2026fell 36.9%year-on-year to 33,137 tonnes, down 2.2% month-on-month. 44% of the exports were destined for China, followed by Germany at 18.1%,Portugal 4.6%, the United States 4.4% and Brazil 3.9%. Malaysia’s natural rubber imports stood at 73,414 tonnes in March, slipping 19.9% year-on-year and 5.8% month-on-month. Standardrubber, concentrated latex and other forms of natural rubber were the main imported products, with major supply sources includingThailand, Côte d'Ivoire, the Philippines and Myanmar. Monitored total natural rubber output reached 20,310 tonnes in March, down 29.3% year-on-year and 8.2% month-on-month.Smallholder plantations contributed 87.8% of the output, while state-owned plantations accounted for 12.2%. On a quarterly basis, output dropped 10.4% to 71,013 tonnes from 79,247 tonnes in Q4 2025, and tumbled 25.3% compared with 95,101tonnes recorded in Q1 2025. Malaysia’s natural rubber inventoriestotalled139,174 tonnes in March, down 1.8% month-on-month and 36.2% year-on-year. 79.1% ofstocks were held by rubber processors, 20.8% by downstream end users and merely 0.1% by large plantation owners. Latex glove manufacturing remained the largest consumer, taking up 64.5% of total consumption. Tires and hoses accounted for6.9%,rubber threads 17%, and other industries 11.6%. Industry News 2.【European Replacement Tire Market Sales Up 1.4% in Q1 2026】 On May 8, the EuropeanTyreand Rubber Manufacturers Association (ETRMA) released market data, showing that sales in Europe’sreplacement tire market rose 1.4% year-on-year to 64.383 million units in the first quarter of 2026. By segment: passenger car tire sales edged up 1% YoY to 58.144 million units; truck and bus tire shipments increased 1% YoY to 2.674million units; agricultural tire shipments fell 11% YoY to 101,000 units; motorcycle and scooter tire shipments grew 6% YoY to 3.464 millionunits. The Secretary General of ETRMA stated that European replacement tire demand showed signs of recovery in Q1 2026, with passengercartires returning to growth after a sluggish 2025. 3.【India’s Natural Rubber Prices Hit Record High on Tight Supply】 Indian media reported on May 8 that domestic natural rubber prices rallied to a record high of 253 rupees per kilogram. Amidacutesupply shortage, some deals in the Kottayam market were concluded at around 260 rupees per kilogram. GeorgeValy, President of the Indian Rubber Traders Federation, attributed the sharp price surge to the Middle East conflict, as well asextreme heat and insufficient rainfall in rubber-growing areas that dragged down output. He added that easing tensions in the MiddleEast and recent heavy summer rains in producing regions are set to lift production, which will likely cool the price uptrendinthe near term. High prices have stimulated tapping activities in untapped areas, which may boost raw material arrivals. Indian traders saiddomestic pricegains are in line with global trends, with international prices standing at 288 rupees per kilogram currently. Sustained supply deficits and steady industrial demand keep rubber prices firm and underpin the uptrend. Tapping has been suspended incore producing zones, tightening market supply. Rising crude oil prices and production disruptions across Southeast Asia haveliftedinternational rubber prices and further pushed up domestic prices in India.Source:Qinrex Market trends Futures Prices➢Increased rainfall expectations in major domestic and overseas producing areas have materialized. Strong restocking demand amongmanufacturers, tight raw material supply amid early tapping phase pushed purchasing prices to new highs, forming solid cost support and boosting bullish sentiment, whichdrove natural rubber prices to hit fresh highsduring the period. ➢Nevertheless, expected supply growth persists, and downstream resistance to high-priced goods keeps rising. Combined with continuous inventory accumulation at ports,multiple bearish factors curbed upward momentum. After hitting peaks, rubber prices faced pressure and gradually retreated fromhigh levels. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spreads between RU-NR, RU-BR and NR-SGX TSR20 decreased, while the spreads between RU-JPXRSS3 increased. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢Imported rubber offers rose this week with moderateshipment willingness. Traders rolled positions across contractmonths, and arbitrage investors increased bullish sp