Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2026/01/11 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【Border Conflicts and Floods Cut Thailand's Rubber Output by Over 44,000Tonnes】 According to a report by Thai media on January 8, the Permanent Secretary of Thailand‘s Ministry of Agriculture revealed thatarmed conflictsalong the Thailand-Cambodia border and floods in southern Thailand have caused losses of over 2.995 billion baht to rubber plantations andreduced rubber output by more than 44,000tonnes. WinairojSapsongsook, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, stated that the hostilities on the Thailand-Cambodia border have directly affected agricultural areas along the border, and rubber tapping operations in plantations acrossmultipleprovinces remain suspended to date. Relevant authorities are currently conducting disaster assessments and rolling out emergencyreliefmeasures. Meanwhile, the government will expedite disaster relief efforts for rubber farmers affected by floods. The disaster has taken a heavy toll across a wide area: 9 provinces in southern Thailand have been hit by floods, while another7 provinces havebeen impacted by the border situation. The total area of damaged rubber plantations has exceeded 1.9 million rai, with cumulative economiclosses surpassing 2.995 billion baht and a rubber output reduction of over 44,000tonnes. Industry News 2.【Indonesia's Total Exports of Natural Rubber and Mixture Rubber Up 4% YoY in First 11 Months】 Data shows that in the first 11 months of 2025, Indonesia’s exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) reached 1.458milliontonnes, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. Among this total, exports of standard rubber stood at 1.426 milliontonnes, down 0.8%year-on-year; exports of ribbed smoked sheets (RSS) hit 31,000tonnes, a year-on-year drop of 14%; and exports of latex amountedto 400tonnes, plummeting 43% year-on-year. In the January-November period, exports of natural rubber to Chinatotalled284,000tonnes, surging 88% year-on-year, while exportsof mixture rubber to China reached 88,000tonnes, soaring 363% year-on-year. Overall, Indonesia’s combined exports of natural rubber and mixture rubber in the first 11 months reached 1.551 milliontonnes, ayear-on-year increase of 4%, with total exports to China hitting 372,000tonnes, a year-on-year jump of 119%. Industry News 3.【Worrying Trend in Sri Lanka's Natural Rubber Output】 According to foreign media reports on January 4, Sri Lanka’s rubber output plummeted from 98,600tonnesto 69,200tonnesover the period2014–2024. During the same timeframe, the area under rubber cultivation also shrank from 133,000 hectares to 84,000 hectares. Consequently,the country registered an average annual negative growth of 7% in natural rubber output and 6.3% in cultivation area over thepast decade. Ifthis trend persists, the rubber sector—once a source of over USD 1 billion in annual foreign exchange earnings for Sri Lanka, amainstay oflivelihoods for thousands of families and a contributor to environmental protection—risks terminal decline. Data indicates that Sri Lanka produced 159,200tonnesof natural rubber on approximately 220,000 hectares of land back in 1970. Maintainingthe current level of domestic natural rubber production could generate over USD 4 billion in annual foreign exchange revenue,while alsosupporting more low-income households and improving their quality of life. Against this backdrop, Sri Lanka’s rubber industry stands at a critical juncture. Stakeholders must conduct an in-depth analysisto identify theroot causes of this predicament and formulate strategies to reverse the sector’s downward trajectory. In addition, urbanization,industrialization,housing construction, crop diversification and low profitability are among the factors contributing to the contraction of rubbercultivation areas.Relevant authorities need to identify alternative suitable land parcels, optimize cultivation technologies for these new regions, and incentivizeboth plantations and smallholder farmers to invest in rubber cultivation in such non-traditional areas. To unlock the sector’s full potential,rubber cultivation must be carried out under optimal soil and climatic conditions with the adoption of sound agricultural practices. Relevantdepartments should also take these factors into account and formulate the necessary supporting policies Source:Qinrex Market trends Futures Prices ➢Rubber futures on both domestic and overseas markets rallied together this week, with RU leading the gains. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spread of RU-NR, NR-SGX TSR20 and RU-JPX RSS3. The price spread of RU-BR has narrowed. Other Spreads