Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2026/01/04 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【Vietnam’s Total Exports of Natural Rubber and Mixture Rubber Down 5.6% YoY in Jan-Nov】 Latest data shows that in the first eleven months of 2025, Vietnam’s cumulative exports of natural rubber reached 643,000 tons,a year-on-yeardecrease of 11% compared with 719,000 tons in the same period last year. Among this volume, exports of standard rubbertotalled304,000tons, down 21% YoY, including 101,000 tons of SVR10, 108,000 tons of SVR3L and 62,000 tons of SVRCV60; exports of smoked sheet rubberstood at 61,000 tons, a year-on-year drop of 9%; exports of latex amounted to 276,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. In the Jan-Nov period, Vietnam’s cumulative exports of mixture rubber hit 999,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2% compared with 1.02million tons in the same period last year. Specifically, exports of SVR3L mixture rubber reached 261,000 tons, up 3% YoY; exports of SVR10mixture rubbertotalled733,000 tons, down 3% YoY; exports of RSS3 mixture rubber stood at 7,600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 39%. In the first eleven months, Vietnam’s exports of natural rubber to Chinatotalled231,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6% compared with218,000 tons in the same period last year. Its exports of mixture rubber to China reached 999,000 tons, a year-on-year decreaseof 2%compared with 1.02 million tons in the same period last year, including 261,000 tons of SVR3L mixture rubber (up 3% YoY), 733,000 tons ofSVR10 mixture rubber (down 3% YoY) and 6,500 tons of RSS3 mixture rubber (a year-on-year drop of 44%). Overall, in the first eleven months, Vietnam’s combined exports of natural rubber and mixture rubber reached 1.642 million tons,a year-on-year decrease of 5.6% compared with 1.739 million tons last year; its total exports to China hit 1.23 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of0.6% compared with 1.238 million tons last year. Industry News 2.【Detailed Guidelines for 2026 Auto Trade-in Subsidy Program Released】 On December 31, the Ministry of Commerce and other relevant government departments issued the detailed guidelines for the 2026auto trade-in subsidy program, specifying the registration time requirements for old vehicles eligible for the 2026 vehicle scrappageand renewal subsidy, with the scope of support further expanded compared with 2025. Under the 2026 vehicle scrappage and renewal program: Gasoline-powered passenger vehicles will qualify for subsidies if they wereregistered on or before June 30, 2013 (inclusive, the same below); diesel and other fuel-powered passenger vehicles must have beenregistered on or before June 30, 2015; while new energy passenger vehicles are eligible if their registration date is on or beforeDecember 31, 2019. In addition, the guidelines made it clear that subsidies for auto trade-in are granted as a proportion of the new vehicle’s selling price,with the maximum subsidy capped at 20,000 yuan for scrappage and renewal, and 15,000 yuan for trade-in replacement. Subsidieswill be disbursed within 30 working days for eligible applications. Industry News 3.【Thailand’s Total Exports of Natural Rubber and Mixture Rubber Up 4.6% YoY in Jan-Nov】 Latest data shows that in the first eleven months of 2025, Thailand’s total exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber)reached 2.419 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. Among this volume, exports of standard rubbertotalled1.338 million tons,down 18% YoY; exports of smoked sheet rubber stood at 392,000 tons, up 24% YoY; exports of latex amounted to 673,000 tons, up8% YoY. In the Jan-Nov period, total exports of natural rubber from Thailand to China hit 945,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14%.Specifically, exports of standard rubber to China reached 558,000 tons, down 12% YoY; exports of smoked sheet rubber to Chinatotalled139,000 tons, surging 248% YoY; exports of latex to China stood at 244,000 tons, up 59% YoY. In the first eleven months, Thailand’s total exports of mixture rubber reached 1.581 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29%; itstotal exports of mixture rubber to China hit 1.573 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 32%. Overall, in the first eleven months, Thailand’s combined exports of natural rubber and mixture rubber reached 4 million tons,ayear-on-year increase of 4.6%; its combined exports to Chinatotalled2.518 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24%. Market trends Futures Prices ➢Domestic rubber futures fell this week while overseas contracts rose. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spread of RU-NR、RU-BR、NR-SGX TSR20 and RU-JPX RSS3 has narrowed. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Fu