Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2026/05/05 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【Natural Rubber Temporarily Excluded from Zero-Tariff Coverage for All African Diplomatic Partner Countries】 On April 28, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement. From May 1, 2026 to April 30, 2028, China willgrant zero tariffs under the preferential tariff scheme to 20 African diplomatic partner countries that are not classified asleast developedcountries (LDCs). For tariff quota products, only the in-quota tariff rate will be reduced to zero, while the out-of-quota tariff rate remainsunchanged. It is stated that within the two-year implementation period, China will continue to advance negotiations and sign Economic PartnershipAgreements for Common Development with relevant African countries. For the 33 African least developed countries that have diplomatic relations with China, China has implemented zero tariffs on100% oftariff items originating from these countries since December 1, 2024. Starting from May 1, 2026, China will become the world’s first major economy to offer unilateral and full-coverage zero-tariff treatment toall African countries with diplomatic ties and all diplomatic least developed countries globally. The Ministry of Commerce stated that the full implementation of zero tariffs for the 53 African diplomatic partner countriesembodiesChina’s firm commitment to advancing high-level opening-up and proactive independent opening-up. It serves as an innovative measureto deliver outcomes of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation and consolidate the all-weather China-Africa community with a sharedfuture for a new era, which will surely inject strong impetus into China-Africa trade, investment cooperation and African development. 2026 marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and African countries. The Ministry ofCommerce noted that it will work with relevant authorities to fully implement the zero-tariff policy following the principles ofequalconsultation and mutual benefit and win-win results. It will also push forward the negotiation and signing of Economic PartnershipAgreements for Common Development with African nations, deepen institutional economic and trade cooperation between China andAfrica, and share development opportunities and pursue common progress with all African countries.Source:Qinrex Industry News Note: Natural Rubber Temporarily Excluded from the Zero-Tariff Scope. Upon verification against the Announcement and the Country List together with Tariff Item and Rate Schedule, natural rubber (covering allproducts under HS codes 4001 and 4005, as well as subheading 40028000, including natural rubber in primary forms,unvulcanizedcompound rubber, and blends of natural and synthetic rubber) is temporarily not covered by the current zero-tariffpolicy.Forthe 20African countries having diplomatic relations with China that are not least developed countries, including Côte d’Ivoire, domesticenterprises importing natural rubber originating from these countries shall still strictly comply with the existing provisions of the tariffregulations and tariff quota administration rules. 2.【Thailand’s Combined Exports of Natural Rubber & Mixture Rubber Dropped 4.3% YoY in Q1】 Latest data shows that in the first quarter of 2026, Thailand’s total exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) reached678,000 tons, down 15% year-on-year. Breakdown: total standard rubber exports stood at 357,000 tons, down 23% YoY; ribbed smokedsheet exports hit 117,000 tons, up 9% YoY; latex exports amounted to 198,000 tons, down 10% YoY. In Q1, Thailand’s natural rubber exports to China totaled 269,000 tons, a 28% year-on-year decline. In detail: standard rubber exports toChina were 148,000 tons, down 36% YoY; ribbed smoked sheet exports to China were 41,000 tons, up 5% YoY; latex exports to Chinacamein at 82,000 tons, down 18% YoY. Thailand’s total mixture rubber exports registered 493,000 tons in the quarter, rising 16% YoY, among which mixture rubber exports toChina reached 492,000 tons, up 17% YoY. Overall, Thailand’s combined exports of natural rubber and mixture rubbertotalled1.171 million tons in Q1, falling 4.3% YoY; combinedshipments to China amounted to 761,000 tons, down 4% YoY.Source:Qinrex Market trends Futures Prices ➢Domestic rubber producing areas saw continued tapping progress this week and raw material prices kept firm because of competition. Overseas producing areas have not yetentered full-scale tapping, leaving raw material price high and well-supported by sustained cost-side strength. ➢Although Qingdao port inventories have built up, market expectations of tight May and June