Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2026/7/19 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【GAC：China's Rubber Imports Down 3.4% YoY in H1 2026】 According to data released by the General Administration of Customs（GAC）of China on July 14, China imported a combined 0.592million tonnes of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in June 2026, down 3.4% from 0.599 million tonnes in the sameperiod of 2025. In the first half of the year, China imported a total of 3.935 million tonnes of natural and synthetic rubber(includinglatex), down 3.4% from 4.074 million tonnes in the same period last year. 2.【Malaysia's May Natural Rubber Output Down 16.7% YoY but Up 9.1% MoM】 According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia on July 13, natural rubber exports in May 2026 fell 20% YoY to 28,741 tonnes,down 23.1% MoM. Of this, 42.7% was exported to China, followed by Germany (14.6%), the United States (11.2%), Turkey (4.3%),andIndia (3.8%). Malaysia's natural rubber imports in May stood at 75,416 tonnes, up 23.9% YoY and up 36.3% MoM. TSR, concentratedlatex, and natural rubber in other forms were the main import categories, with the principal source countries being Thailand,Côted'Ivoire, the Philippines, and Myanmar. Total monitored natural rubber output in May was 20,198 tonnes, down 16.7% YoY but up9.1% MoM. Smallholdings accounted for 89.4% of output, while state-owned estates accounted for 10.6%. Malaysia's natural rubberinventories in May stood at 122,658 tonnes, down 6.2% MoM. Of this, 77.8% was held by rubber processors, 22% by downstreamend-users, and 0.2% by large estate owners. Total domestic natural rubber consumption in May rose 4.4% YoY to 21,142 tonnes,down 0.3% MoM. The latex glove industry remained the mainstay of Malaysia's natural rubber consumption, accounting for 67.5%,followed by tires and hoses (8.8%), rubber thread (11.4%), and other industries (12.3%). Industry News 3.【China's June Vehicle Production and Sales Rose 5.5% and 6.9% Month-on-Month】 According to the latest data released by CAAM (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers), in June China's vehicle productionand salestotalled2.76 million units and 2.81 million units, up 5.5% and 6.9% month-on-month and down 1.2% and 3.2% year-on-year, respectively. In the first half of the year, cumulative vehicle production and sales came in at 14.993 million units and 15.017million units, down 4% and 4.1% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline narrowing further compared with that of the first fivemonths. 4.【European Commission Issues Final Anti-Dumping Ruling on China-Origin PCR and Light Truck Tires】 On 7 July 2026, the European Commission issued the final anti-dumping ruling on passenger car and light truck tires originatingfrom China. Product: PCR and light truck tires originating from China. Ruling type: Final anti-dumping. Effective date: 8 July2026.Key tariff rates: Hankook 4.3%; other cooperating companies (e.g.Sailun,Linglong) 24.4%; non-cooperating companies 45.3%. 5.【Liberia Bans Unprocessed Rubber Exports Effective 1 July 2026】 According to the Liberian Observer, Liberian President JosephNyumaBoakai has signed Executive Order No. 166, imposing anindefinite ban on exports of unprocessed natural rubber effective 1 July 2026. This major policy shift aims to accelerateindustrialisation, expand domestic manufacturing, and increase the value-added of Liberia's rubber industry. As part of thegovernment's "Inclusive Development Agenda," the executive order seeks to reduce Liberia’s long-standing reliance on raw materialexports and to encourage the processing of rubber into finished and semi-finished products for domestic and international markets. Market trends Futures Prices➢Periodic rainfall in both domestic and overseas natural rubber producing regions continued to disrupt tapping operations, leaving the overall increase in feedstock output below market expectations. Overseas processing plants shipped at a relatively fast pace this week, and strong sentiment towardfeedstock restocking pushed procurement prices higher, sustaining strong cost support for natural rubber. Natural rubber spotinventories continuedto destock, and, coupled with a strengthening synthetic rubber market that provided a linked boost, these multiple positive factors resonated tosupport a firm bias in rubber prices this week. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spreads between RU-NR increased, while the spreads between RU-BR, RU-JPX RSS3, NR-SGX TSR20decreased. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢This week, offers in the imported rubber market rose. Traderswere mainly rolling positions across contract months, cargoholders were reluctant to sell at low price