Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2026/03/08 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1. [USTMA: U.S. Tire Shipments Projected to Rise 0.7% in 2026] According to news from the U.S. on March 4, the U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) released its 2026 U.S. tire shipmentforecast inFebruary 2026. Total tire shipments are projected to increase 0.7% to 338.9 million units in 2026, up from 336.3 million units in 2025 and 332.7million units in 2019. This figure exceeds the previous record of 337.3 million units set in 2024. Compared with 2025, originalequipment (OE)shipments of passenger, light truck, and truck tires are expected to rise 0.8%, 1.2%, and 8.3% respectively, with a total increase of 0.8 millionunits. Replacement shipments of passenger, light truck, and truck tires are also forecast to grow 0.6%, 0.8%, and 0.2% respectively, with a totalincrease of 1.7 million units. 2.【ANRPC: Global Natural Rubber Output to Rise 2.2% in 2026, Consumption Up 1.4%】 According to the January 2026 report released by ANRPC, global natural rubber production in January is expected to increase by 4.3% to 1.409milliontonnes, down 1% month-on-month. Natural rubber consumption is forecast to rise by 4.4% to 1.287 milliontonnes, down 1.8% month-on-month. Global natural rubber production in 2026 is projected to grow by 2.2% year-on-year to 15.324 milliontonnes. By country: Thailand +1.4%,Indonesia-0.8%, China +1.3%, India +4.4%, Vietnam-4.2%, Malaysia +9.9%, Cambodia +2.9%, Myanmar +1.1%, Sri Lanka +12.4%, Othercountries +6.5%. Global natural rubber consumption in 2026 is expected to increase by 1.4% year-on-year to 15.602 milliontonnes. By country: China +1.7%,India +3.5%, Thailand-2.8%, Indonesia +1.0%, Malaysia +9.7%, Vietnam-5.7%, Sri Lanka-5.1%, Cambodia +7.5%, Philippines +13.8%, Othercountries +1.6%. The report noted that natural rubber market prices rose sharply in January 2026, driven by surging oil prices and increased demand from tiremanufacturers, especially in China. Market sentiment remained firm despite various global economic pressures, supported by signsof recoveryin the tireindustry.Themarket is currently in a consolidation phase following the recent price rally, amid the seasonal low-production periodfrom February to May, which historically has been marked by tight global supply.Source:Qinrex Industry News 3.【China’s Heavy-Duty Truck Sales Fell about 8% to 75,000 Units in February】 According to preliminary data compiled by China Commercial Vehicle Network, China’s heavy-duty truck market soldapproximately 75,000 units in February 2026 (on a wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles). Thisrepresents a nearly 30% month-on-month decline from January 2026 and an approximately 8% year-on-yeardecrease from 81,400 units in the same period last year. For the January–February period of this year, cumulativesales in China’s heavy-duty truck industry exceeded 180,000 units, up about 17% year-on-year. The dual year-on-yearand month-on-month declines in February 2026 were mainly attributed to seasonal fluctuations associated with theSpring Festival holiday. 4.【Indonesia: Total Exports of Natural Rubber & Mixture Rubber Down 22% YoY in January】Latest data showthat in January 2026, Indonesia exported 102,000tonnesof natural rubber, down 29% year-on-year. By product,standard rubber exports stood at 99,000tonnes, down 29% YoY, smoked sheet exports at 3,000tonnes, flat YoY, andlatex exports at zero. Indonesia exported 13,000tonnesof mixture rubber in January, surging 160% year-on-year.Overall, Indonesia’s total exports of natural rubber and mixture rubber in January reached 115,000tonnes, down22% year-on-year compared with 148,000tonnesin the same period last year. Market trends Futures Prices ➢This week, domestic and foreign natural rubber futures rose first and then fell, closing lower overall. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spreads between RU-NR, RU-BR, and RU-JPX RSS3 decreased, while the spread between NR and SGXTSR20 increased. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢This week, offers in the imported rubber market trendeddownward from high levels. Traders rotated positions androlled over contracts, arbitrage positions closed out and sold,while downstream buyers purchased only for rigid demand. ➢During the period, futures rallied first then pulled back; offersin the domestic natural rubber spot market moved lower inline with the futures trend. Market volatility weighed on tradingsentiment, with participants remaining cautious, strong wait-and-see sentiment, and low actual transaction activity. Other Spreads: Light and DarkColoredRubber ➢The price spread of SCRWF-Thai mixture rubber ha