Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2026/7/12 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【China's June Vehicle Production and Sales Rose 5.5% and 6.9% Month-on-Month】 According to the latest data released by CAAM (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers), in June China's vehicle productionand salestotalled2.76 million units and 2.81 million units, up 5.5% and 6.9% month-on-month and down 1.2% and 3.2% year-on-year, respectively. In the first half of the year, cumulative vehicle production and sales came in at 14.993 million units and 15.017million units, down 4% and 4.1% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline narrowing further compared with that of the first fivemonths. 2.【US tire Imports Down 3.6% YoY in Jan–May 2026】 Latest data showed US tire importstotalled116.59 million units in the first five months of 2026, down 3.6% YoY. Of this, PCR importsfell 2% YoY to 69.98 million units; TBR imports dropped 9% YoY to 24.71 million units; aircraft tire imports rose 22% YoY to135,000units; motorcycle tire imports declined 2% YoY to 1.54 million units; and bicycle tire imports climbed 24% YoY to 3.28 million units. US imports from Chinatotalled7.44 million units over the period, down 33% YoY, with PCR imports down 14% YoY to 409,000 unitsand TBR imports down 41% YoY to 382,000 units. US imports from Thailand came in at 28.25 million units, down 8% YoY, with PCR imports at 16.41 million units (-11% YoY) and TBRimports at 5.46 million units (-23% YoY). 3.【European Commission Issues Final Anti-Dumping Ruling on China-Origin PCR and Light Truck Tires】 On 7 July 2026, the European Commission issued the final anti-dumping ruling on passenger car and light truck tires originatingfrom China. Product: PCR and light truck tires originating from China.Ruling type: Final anti-dumping. Effective date: 8 July 2026.Key tariff rates: Hankook 4.3%; other cooperating companies (e.g.Sailun,Linglong) 24.4%; non-cooperating companies 45.3%.Source:Qinrex Industry News 4.【Côte d'Ivoire's Rubber Exports Up 0.8% YoY in H1 2026】 Latest data showed Côte d'Ivoire exported 904,000 tonnes of natural rubber in H1 2026, a marginal 0.8% rise from 897,000 tonnesinthe same period of 2025. June alone saw exports up 6.1% year-on-year and 30.6% month-on-month. Côte d'Ivoire is a major naturalrubber producer in Africa, with exports rising year after year in recent years as farmers, drawn by more stable returns, switched fromcocoa to rubber. 5.【Liberia Bans Unprocessed Rubber Exports Effective 1 July 2026】 According to the Liberian Observer, Liberian President JosephNyumaBoakai has signed Executive Order No. 166, imposing anindefinite ban on exports of unprocessed natural rubber effective 1 July 2026. This major policy shift aims to accelerateindustrialisation, expand domestic manufacturing, and increase the value-added of Liberia's rubber industry. As part of thegovernment's "Inclusive Development Agenda," the executive order seeks to reduce Liberia’s long-standing reliance on raw materialexports and to encourage the processing of rubber into finished and semi-finished products for domestic and international markets. Market trends Futures Prices➢Periodic weather disruptions across domestic and overseas producing regions have yet to meaningfully ease raw material supplyliquidity, keeping purchase prices elevated. Compounding this, the near-month strong / far-month weak structure of TSR 20 has re-emerged, and domestic naturalrubber spot inventories saw substantial drawdowns, sustaining bullish market sentiment. However, with downstream tire enterprises undertakingrotating maintenance, the seasonal weakness remains hard to reverse, and their natural rubber purchases are limited to smallessential-demandvolumes. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spreads between RU-NR, RU-BR, RU-JPX RSS3 decreased, while the spreads between NR-SGX TSR20increased. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢Imported rubber offers rose this week as traders rolledpositions across contract months, with near-month cargoessold at lower prices and downstream buyers making onlysmall rigid-demand replenishments, leaving trading sentimentmuted. Futures prices held a range-bound pattern with abullish bias, while domestic natural rubber spot prices edgedup modestly in tandem. Downstream procurement interestremained subdued, dominated by moderate rigid-demandrestocking; overall market activity stayedlacklustreand actualtransactions thin. Other Spreads: Light and DarkColoredRubber ➢The price spread of SCRWF-Thai mixture rubber widened, and the price spread of 3L-Thai mixture rubbernarrowed. Price of Substitutes: BR & SBR ➢Butadiene rubber (BR) prices rebounded after a