Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date: 2026/04/06 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【Indonesia’s Combined Exports of Natural Rubber & Mixed Rubber Down 19% YoY in Jan–Feb】 Latest data show that in the first two months of 2026, Indonesia exported a total of 210,000 tonnes of natural rubber (excludingcompound rubber), down26% year on year. Of this, standard rubber exports amounted to 205,000 tonnes, down 27% YoY; ribbed smoked sheet exports were 5,000 tonnes, down 17% YoY; and nolatex was exported. In January–February, Indonesia exported 24,000 tonnes of natural rubber to China, down 61% YoY, while exports of mixed rubber toChinatotalled25,000tonnes, up 150% YoY. Overall, Indonesia’s combined exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber reached 239,000 tonnes in the first two months, down19% YoY. Total exports ofthese two types to China stood at 49,000 tonnes, down 31% YoY. 2.【ANRPC: Global Natural Rubber Production to Rise 3.4% in February, Consumption to Drop 16.6%】 According to ANRPC’s latest February 2026 report, global natural rubber production is forecast to rise 3.4% year on year to 994,000 tonnes in February,down 23.9% month on month. Global natural rubber consumption is expected to fall 16.6% year on year to 1.088 million tonnes,down 15.9% month onmonth. In the first two months, cumulative global natural rubber production is projected to decrease 0.5% year on year to 2.301million tonnes, whilecumulative consumption is forecast to drop 6.1% year on year to 2.381 million tonnes. For 2026 as a whole, global natural rubber production is expected to increase 2.2% year on year to 15.324 milliontonnes.Bycountry: Thailand +1.4%,Indonesia-0.8%, China +1.3%, India +4.4%, Vietnam-4.2%, Malaysia +9.9%, Cambodia +2.9%, Myanmar +1.1%, Sri Lanka +12.4%, and other countries+6.5%. Global natural rubber consumption in 2026 is projected to rise 1.4% year on year to 15.602 milliontonnes.Bycountry: China +1.7%, India +3.5%, Thailand-2.8%, Indonesia +1%, Malaysia +9.7%, Vietnam-5.7%, Sri Lanka-5.1%, Cambodia +7.5%, Philippines +13.8%, and other countries +1.6%. The report noted that the expected 3.4% year-on-year growth in global natural rubber production in February alone is mainly driven by improved weatherconditions in major producing countries and higher mainstream rubber prices. Even so, production trends remain uneven acrossmember countries. Thailand is expected to remain the world’s largest natural rubber producer, while Indonesia and Vietnam face near-term production constraints due to aseries of structural and agronomic factors.Source:Qinrex Industry News 3.【Thailand’s Natural Rubber Output Projected to Rise 0.6% to 4.84 Million Tonnes in 2025】 Latest data fromQinRexshows that Thailand’s natural rubber production is expected to increase by 0.6% to 4.84 milliontonnes in 2025, compared with 4.81 million tonnes in 2024. By region: the North up 3.1% to 303,000 tonnes; the Northeastup 1.4% to 1.42 million tonnes; the Central down 1.7% to 403,000 tonnes; the South up 0.2% to 2.711 million tonnes. The total tapped area is forecast to edge down 0.1% to 22.36 million rai in 2025, from 22.38 million rai in 2024. By region:the North up 0.7% to 1.45 million rai; the Northeast up 0.2% to 6.07 million rai; the Central down 0.9% to 2.15 million rai;theSouth down 0.2% to 12.69 million rai. In addition, the national average yield rose 0.5% from 215 kg per rai to 216 kg per rai. By region: the North rose to 209kg/rai; the Northeast rose to 234 kg/rai; the Central fell to 187 kg/rai; the South rose to 214 kg/rai. The decline in tapped area in 2025 was due to rubber farmers in the Central and South regions cutting down low-yieldingold rubber trees and switching to fruit and perennial crops such as durian and oil palm. The increase in overall productionwas mainly driven by sufficient rainfall during the year, a lower incidence of rubber leaf fall disease, and higher per-rai yields,which offset the reduction in tapped area. Market trends Futures Prices ➢Natural rubber futures both in China and overseas rose generally this week, with JPX RSS3 leading the gains. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spreads between RU-NR, RU-BR and NR-SGX TSR20 increased, while the spreads between RU-JPXRSS3 decreased. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢Imported rubber offers rose this week as traders rolled overpositions for new contract months, with a small number ofarbitrage positions unwinding. Downstream buying sentimentremained weak. ➢For domestic natural rubber, the spot price center edged upamid improved external macro sentiment, with futures risingsharply and spot offers following higher. Demand showed noobvious improvement;