Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date: 2026/06/14 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【Malaysia’s April Natural Rubber Output Rises 2.8% YoY, Falls 8.8% MoM】 According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia on June 11, Malaysia’s natural rubber exports in April 2026 rose 4.1%year-on-year to 37,360 tonnes, representing a 12.7% month-on-month increase. Of the total exports, 50.8% were shipped toChina, followed by Germany at 15.8%, the United States at 4.7%, the United Arab Emirates at 4.2%, and Portugal at 3.7%. Malaysia imported 55,353 tonnes of natural rubber in April, a year-on-year drop of 17.4% and a month-on-month decline of24.5%. Standard rubber, concentrated latex and natural rubber in other forms constituted the main import categories, withmajor supply countries including Thailand, Côte d’Ivoire, the Philippines and Myanmar. The monitored total natural rubber output stood at 18,515 tonnes in April, up 2.8% year-on-year and down 8.8% month-on-month. Smallholder plantations accounted for 88.5% of output, while state-owned plantations made up the remaining11.5%. Malaysia’s natural rubber inventoriestotalled130,698 tonnes at the end of April, falling 6.2% month-on-month. Processorsheld 76.9% of total stocks, downstream end-users held 23%, and large plantation owners accounted for merely 0.1%. Domestic natural rubber consumption reached 21,208 tonnes in April, climbing 9.3% year-on-year and 3.4% month-on-month. The latex glove sector remained the largest consumer of natural rubber in Malaysia, accounting for 70.3% of totaldomestic usage. Tires and hoses took up 8.4%, rubber thread 11.3%, and other industries 10%. Industry News 2.【US Tire Imports Down 4.2% Year-on-Year in First Four Months】 Latest data shows that the United States imported a total of 93.07 million tires in the first four months of 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%. Among them, imports of passenger car tires fell 3% year-on-year to 55.74 million units; truck and bus tire imports dropped9% year-on-year to 19.54 million units; aircraft tires rose 19% year-on-year to 107,000 units; motorcycle tires declined 4%year-on-year to 1.21 million units; bicycle tires increased 20% year-on-year to 2.53 million units. From January to April, the US imported a total of 6.04 million tires from China, down 36% year-on-year. Passenger car tireimports fell 17% year-on-year to 329,000 units, while truck and bus tire imports slumped 46% year-on-year to 304,000 units. Over the same four-month period, US tire imports from Thailandtotalled22.98 million units, an 8% year-on-year drop.Imports of passenger car tires stood at 13.18 million units, down 13% year-on-year, and truck and bus tires amounted to4.43 million units, a 23% year-on-year decline. Industry News 3.【India’s Natural Rubber Prices Hit All-Time High】 Indian media reported on June 9 that driven by rising international prices, domestic natural rubber prices in India surged toa record high of 267 rupees per kilogram. The commodity traded at 185 rupees per kilogram at the start of the year. Traders stated that deals were reported at 269 rupees per kilogram in Kottayam. Rubber prices in the international markethave climbed steadily since the beginning of the year. In Bangkok, the price of RSS3 grade rubber jumped from 191.85rupees per kilogram at year-start to the current 304.62 rupees per kilogram. GeorgeValy, President of the Indian Rubber Dealers Federation, said the uptrend in India’s natural rubber prices stems froma combination of supply shortages caused by rainfall, higher international market prices, disruptions linked to shippingcrises in the Middle East, and raw material scarcity. According to the latest statistical report from the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), globalnatural rubber output in 2026 is projected to rise by 2.2% to approximately 15.322 million tonnes. Meanwhile, globalconsumption is expected to grow by 1.3% to around 15.55 million tonnes, indicating a persistent supply-demand deficit. Market trends Futures Prices➢As market expectations of tapping capacity release across producing regions strengthened, upstream manufacturers pressed down purchasing prices, leading to sustained weakness in raw material costs and further erosion of cost support for natural rubber. Downstreamenterprises generally adopted flexible production controls to work off high-priced finished goods inventories. Rising spot inventories ofnatural rubber dampened bullish sentiment, resulting in a weak downward trend for the natural rubber market during the period. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spreads between RU-NR , RU-BR increased, while the spreads between RU-JPX RSS3,