Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2026/06/07 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【Thailand’s Rubber Authority Auctions 18,400 Tonnes of State Rubber Stocks with Total Reserve Price Over 914.72Million THB】 According to news from Thailand on June 5, the Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) announced the public auction of state-held rubber stocks under two price-stabilization programs: the Project to Enhance Farmers' Organizational Capacity and theRubber Price Stabilization Buffer Fund. The total volume on offer stands at 18,491.93 tonnes. Split into four lots by product condition and storage location, the aggregate reserve price reaches approximately 914.72million Thai Baht. The announcement was signed by Mr.KosolBoonkhong, RAOT Deputy Governor and Acting Governor, onJune 2, 2026. Bidding will kick off at 13:30 on June 15 on an as-is basis. Successful bidders shall not request any modification,alteration or maintenance of the auctioned goods afterwards. Lot Details: (1) Thung Song Si Wat Warehouse, Songkhla Province: 7,389.82 tonnes, reserve price 50.58 THB/kg, total 373,777,095.6 THB(2) Wan Chai Star 1 Warehouse, Songkhla Province: 6,566.6 tonnes, reserve price 48.33 THB/kg, total 317,363,778 THB(3) Wan Chai Star 5 Warehouse, Songkhla Province: 2,587.53 tonnes, reserve price 48.33 THB/kg, total 125,055,324.9 THB(4) C & T Modular Warehouse, Chon Buri Province: 1,947.98 tonnes, reserve price 50.58 THB/kg, total 98,528,828.4 THB Industry News 2.【Indonesia's Combined Exports of Natural & Mixture Rubber Down 15.5% YoY in Jan-Apr】 Data shows Indonesia exported 440,000 tonnes of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) in the first four months of2026, a 23% year-on-year drop. Standard rubber exports stood at 430,000 tonnes (down 23% YoY), smoked sheet rubber at10,000 tonnes (down 9% YoY), and latex at 300 tonnes (flat YoY). Its natural rubber shipments to Chinatotalled52,000 tonnes, plunging 55% YoY, while mixture rubber exports to China hit45,000 tonnes, surging 200% YoY. Overall, combined exports of natural rubber and mixture rubber reached 495,000 tonnes, down 15.5% YoY. Total shipmentsto China amounted to 97,000 tonnes, a 25% year-on-year decline. Market trends Futures Prices➢Tapping output keeps rising in domestic and overseas producing areas. Overseas factories ramp up production to fulfill ordersand remain eager to purchase raw materials, keeping raw material prices elevated and delivering solid cost support for rubber prices.Meanwhile, domestic spot inventories of natural rubber are drawn down at a faster pace, further boosting bullish sentiment. Towardsthe weekend, high-price transactions weakened, dragging rubber prices lower. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spreads between RU-NR , RU-JPX RSS3 decreased, while the spreads between RU-BR , NR-SGXTSR20 increased. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢Imported rubber offers moved up this week. Traders rotatedpositions for contract rollover, while holders adopted acautious selling stance and arbitrage positions increased.Downstream manufacturers showed weak restockingwillingness. ➢Futures prices fluctuated at high levels. Domestic naturalrubber spot offers trended higher. Downstream demandremained stable with buyers only purchasing rigid demandcautiously. Inquiries were muted and actual transactionsstayed thin. Other Spreads: Light and DarkColoredRubber ➢The price spread of SCRWF-Thai mixture rubber narrowed, and the price spread of 3L-Thai mixture rubberwidened. Price of Substitutes: BR & SBR ➢The butadiene rubber market traded within a range,with prices rising first and then falling. Butadieneprices moved sideways, offering limited cost guidance.Natural rubber rallied sharply during the week andlifted market sentiment, yet buying interest faded.Pressured by weak demand, butadiene rubber pricescorrected lower eventually. Capital Trends Supply & Demand Data Supply: Precipitation ➢Keep an eye on rainfall disruptions in Yunnan, southern Thailand and Vietnam. Rainfall in Hainan is expected toremain below average, while Indonesia is gradually entering the dry season. Supply: Temperature ➢Temperatures may stay high in Hainan and Yunnan, while those in other producing areas are set to peak anddecline. Supply: Raw material prices ➢Rubber output continues to rise across domestic and overseas producing areas. Factories keep rushing to secure raw materialsfororder fulfillment, pushing purchasing prices higher. Supply: Price Spreads between Raw Materials ➢The price spread between Thai latex and cup lump narrowed. ➢The price gap between concentrate latex plants and SCRWF plants for latex procurement in Hainan widened, andthat in Yunan