Energy&Chemical Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2026/05/24 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【Global Light Vehicle Sales Fell 3.4% Year-on-Year to 7.14 Million Units in April】 According to the latest report from LMC Automotive, the seasonally adjusted annualized global light vehicle sales recovered to 89million units in April 2026, down nearly 7% from 92 million units in the same period last year. Monthly sales dipped 3.4% year on year. Global sales still lagged behind the 2025 level, dragged largely by a notable slowdown in China. Weak market growth in Chinastemmed from sluggish policy implementation with limited stimulus effects. Delayed and uneven rollout of trade-in subsidies,normalized vehicle prices and broader economic headwinds all dented consumer demand. Despite a deteriorating global economy, sales remained resilient in the US and Western Europe. The US outperformed expectationseven against a high base driven by pre-tariff rush purchases last April. Western Europe saw steady growth thanks to increased supplyof affordable models and supportive EV policies. 2.【National Bureau of Statistics: China's Synthetic Rubber Output Down 5.7% YoY to 691,000 Tonnes in April】 Official data shows China produced 691,000 tonnes of synthetic rubber in April 2026, a 5.7% year-on-year decline. Total output fromJanuary to April reached 2.989 million tonnes, rising 2.1% year on year. 3.【NBS: China's tire casing output up 3.5% year-on-year in April】 China produced 106.469 million tire casings in April 2026, rising 3.5% year-on-year. The cumulative output from January to Aprilhit394.199 million pieces, a 1.2% year-on-year increase. Industry News 4.【China's Tire Exports Rise 5.8% Year-on-Year in First Four Months】 Data released by China General Administration of Customs on May 18 shows China's rubber tire exports stood at 3.21 million tonsin Jan-Apr 2026, up 5.8% year-on-year; export value hit 53.8 billion yuan, down 0.1%. New pneumatic rubber tire exports reached 3.08 million tons, a 5.7% yearly increase, with export value of 51.6 billion yuan,dropping 0.2%.Exports totaled 237.38 million pieces, rising 4.7%. Automotive tire exports amounted to 2.69 million tons, up 4.8% year-on-year, valued at 43.5 billion yuan, a 1.6% decline. 5.【Malaysia’s Q1 Natural Rubber Output Down 25.3% YoY】 According to data released by Malaysia’s Department of Statistics on May 13, Malaysia’s natural rubber exports in March 2026fell 36.9%year-on-year to 33,137 tonnes, down 2.2% month-on-month. 44% of the exports were destined for China, followed by Germany at 18.1%,Portugal 4.6%, the United States 4.4% and Brazil 3.9%. Malaysia’s natural rubber imports stood at 73,414 tonnes in March, slipping 19.9% year-on-year and 5.8% month-on-month. Standardrubber, concentrated latex and other forms of natural rubber were the main imported products, with major supply sources includingThailand, Côte d'Ivoire, the Philippines and Myanmar. Monitored total natural rubber output reached 20,310 tonnes in March, down 29.3% year-on-year and 8.2% month-on-month.Smallholder plantations contributed 87.8% of the output, while state-owned plantations accounted for 12.2%. On a quarterly basis, output dropped 10.4% to 71,013 tonnes from 79,247 tonnes in Q4 2025, and tumbled 25.3% compared with 95,101tonnes recorded in Q1 2025. Source:Qinrex Market trends Futures Prices ➢Expected supply growth at home and abroad gradually materializes. Upstream factories cut procurement bids, putting raw materialprices under pressure. Prices remain elevated with solid cost support. Combined with falling total spot inventories, downstreampurchases stay rigid demand-based. Rubber prices drift lower and consolidate weakly afterward. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spreads between RU-NR, NR-SGX TSR20 decreased, while the spreads between RU-BR, RU-JPX RSS3increased. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢Imported rubber offers trended lower this week. Traders rolledpositions across contracts, some arbitrage positions closedout for sales, while downstream factories made rigid demandrestocking. ➢Futures fluctuated weaker, dragging domestic natural rubberspot offers down. Wide price swings kept market sentimentcautious. Buyers purchased selectively on dips with mildactual trading volume. Other Spreads: Light and DarkColoredRubber ➢The price spread of SCRWF-Thai mixture rubber widened, and the price spread of 3L-Thai mixture rubberwidened. Price of Substitutes: BR & SBR ➢The butadiene rubber market retreated again thisperiod. Butadiene prices climbed moderately, liftingproduction costs. Despite sustained theoretical profitlosses, resumed production units boosted overallsupply. We