Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2026/8/2 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【ANRPC: Global natural rubber output seen down 2.3% in H1, consumption down 1.3%】 ANRPC's June 2026 report projects June global natural rubber output to fall 3.7% YoY to 1.207 million tonnes (+19% MoM) andconsumption to rise 3.3% YoY to 1.30 million tonnes (-0.5% MoM). H1 cumulative output is expected to drop 2.3% to 6.069 milliontonnes, with cumulative consumption down 1.3% to 7.513 million tonnes. 2026 global output is forecast at 15.31 million tonnes, up2.3% YoY, with country changes: Thailand +1.4%, Indonesia-0.8%, China +2.9%, India +4.4%, Vietnam-4.2%, Malaysia +6.9%,Cambodia +2.9%, Myanmar +1.1%, Sri Lanka +12.4%, other non-member countries +6.5%. 2026 global consumption is forecast at15.411 million tonnes, up 0.7% YoY: China +1.2%, India +0.2%, Thailand-3.5%, Indonesia +1%, Malaysia +8.2%, Vietnam-5.7%, SriLanka-5.1%, Cambodia +7.5%, Philippines +13.8%, other non-member countries +1.2%. The report attributes June's price resilience to a mix of complex geopolitical developments, supply constraints, and a shiftingmacroenvironment. The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding temporarily reopened the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent crude sharplylower to a June average of US$85.40/barrel (-20.29% MoM). Meanwhile, El Niño continued to tighten supply across major producers,supporting prices. June output declined on the seasonal wintering period combined with El Niño-driven abnormal heat and rainfallacross Southeast and South Asia; Malaysia, Indonesia, and Cambodia rolled out new incentives, export controls, and investmentpolicies to strengthen their rubber industries. June consumption rose, led by China and India, on stable tire and EV-related demand,resilient manufacturing PMIs in both countries, and record Indian vehicle retail sales. Industry News 2.【Vietnam's H1 natural rubber and mixture rubber exports fall 4.8% YoY】 Latest data show Vietnam exported 249,000 tonnes of natural rubber in H1 2026, down 5% YoY from 262,000 tonnes. Standardrubber exports came to 132,000 tonnes (-8% YoY), comprising SVR10 at 45,000 tonnes, SVR3L at 46,000 tonnes, and SVR CV60 at29,000 tonnes; ribbed smoked sheet (RSS) exports held flat YoY at 26,000 tonnes; latex exports totaled 91,000 tonnes (-1% YoY).H1mixture rubber exports totaled 406,000 tonnes, down 5% YoY from 426,000 tonnes, including SVR3L mixture at 92,000 tonnes (-8%YoY), SVR10 mixture at 311,000 tonnes (-4% YoY), and RSS3 mixture at 3,400 tonnes (-6% YoY). H1 natural rubber exports to China totaled 41,000 tonnes, down 34% YoY from 62,000 tonnes. H1 mixture rubber exports to Chinacame to 405,000 tonnes, down 5% YoY from 426,000 tonnes, including SVR3L mixture at 92,000 tonnes (-8% YoY), SVR10 mixture at311,000 tonnes (-4% YoY), and RSS3 mixture at 2,800 tonnes (-7% YoY). Combined, Vietnam's H1 natural rubber and mixture rubberexports totaled 655,000 tonnes, down 4.8% YoY from 688,000 tonnes; exports to China totaled 446,000 tonnes, down 9% YoY from488,000 tonnes. Market trends Futures Prices ➢Heavier rainfall disrupted upstream producing regions this week. High cost-side support persists, but producing regions are in aseasonal outputramp-up phase and feedstock procurement prices continued to decline. Overseas factories shipped actively to China, gradually weakening naturalrubber cost support. Month-end tire production controls extended, with overall industry operating rates below normal. External macro sentimentsoftened, lifting bearish sentiment. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spreads between RU-BR increased, while the spreads between RU-NR, RU-JPX RSS3, NR-SGX TSR20decreased. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢Imported rubber offers fell this week as traders purchased in-stock and nearby spot rubber while selling forward spot tolock calendar spreads, and arbitrage positions closed out.Downstream restocked actively on dips; the futures marketfluctuated lower, pulling domestic natural rubber spot offersdown, with inquiry thin, only light orders posted, and fewactual deals. Other Spreads: Light and DarkColoredRubber ➢The price spread of SCRWF-Thai mixture rubber widened, and the price spread of 3L-Thai mixture rubberwidened. Price of Substitutes: BR & SBR ➢During the cycle, Middle East risks eased, crude oil andnaphtha prices surged then pulled back, butadiene pricesweakened in consolidation, loosening feedstock support;on the supply side, butadiene rubber capacity utilizationstayed high, uneven market availability persisted with thehigh-low price spread widening further; end-user demandsaw limited improvement, with actual deals dominated byscattered rigid demand,