Morning Insight: August 3, 2026

Morning Insight:August 3, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen WuCertification：Z0024232wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Coking Coal & Coke:Inter-month spread dynamics in coking coal are nowprimarily driven by expectations of production resumptions alongside amore pessimistic demand outlook. Based on the delivery economicsdiscussed above, warehouse receipt arbitrage hasnot yet fully playedout. As the premium on the January contract (01) has been largelycompressed, the previously smooth bullish Sep/Jan calendar spread (longSep, short Jan) driven by the January contract's oversold condition mayface increasing challenges going forward. From a fundamental perspective, the coking coal market remains relativelytight on the supply side. New regulatory measures are expected toconstrain both approved capacity expansions and new production approvals,limiting future supply growth. However, from a market sentimentperspective, the period of peak pessimism over supply disruptions haslikely passed. Market attention has shifted from "how much production hasbeen suspended" to "how much production will resume," meaning futureprice direction is likely to be driven more by inventory dynamics than byproduction levels alone. On the supply side, a coal mine in Qinyuan County, Changzhi—previouslyshut down following a mining accident—has already resumed operations.Although this remains an isolated case and output has only recovered toaround 40% of pre-shutdown levels, it contrasts with the market's earlierexpectation that production resumptions would be significantly delayed.While regulatory inspections remain stringent, the market has graduallypriced in this recovery. At the same time, supply conditions have shifted from "tight across the board" to "tight but gradually easing," withincreased arrivals of imported coal at ports beginning to narrow thesupply deficit. From an inventory perspective, upstream inventories continue toaccumulate despite production cuts. As negotiations between cokeproducers and steel mills intensify and another round of coke pricereductions begins, downstream buyers have shifted from proactiverestocking to active destocking. Unless hot metal production shows ameaningful recovery, this negative feedback cycle is likely to persist.That said, close attention should be paid to the timing of replenishmentby traders and downstream consumers. Inventories at both intermediate anddownstream stages have already been declining steadily. Given thatstructural supply constraints remain difficult to resolve, there is stillpotential for supply-demand imbalances to intensify further. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Sunday said in astatement released after its work conference that it will continue tosteadily expand institutional opening-up in the foreign exchange sectorin the second half of this year. The administration will promote nationwide the facilitation policies forhigh-level opening-up in cross-border trade foreign exchange receipts andpayments, support the development of new forms of trade such as cross-border e-commerce, optimize foreign exchange settlement for service trade, and bolster the development of intermediate goods trade.It will also promote nationwide the centralized operation policy fordomestic and foreign currency cross-border funds of multinationalcorporations, issue regulations on the administration of domestic foreignexchange loans, and steadily and prudently expand connectivity betweenfinancial markets. At the meeting, it was made clear that the administration will supportthe development of Shanghai as an international financial center, improveforeign exchange management to implement the plan for upgrading pilotfree trade zones, and support the HainanFree Trade Port and otherregions in carrying out foreign exchange management innovations. The meeting also stressed the need to strengthen the monitoring of cross-border capital flows, continuously improve macro-prudential managementand expectation management, and take comprehensive measures to safeguardthe stability of the foreign exchange market. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China's central bank said Sunday that it will continue to implement amoderately loose monetary policy in the second half (H2) of 2026,strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, and take solid steps to promotesustained and improved economic development. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said in a statement released after itswork conference for the second half of the year that it will makecomprehensive use of monetary policy tools and adjust them in a timelymanner. Also, the PBOC will maintain ample liquidity, guide financialinstitutions to enhance the balance of credit supply, and align thegrowth of social financing and money supply with