Morning Insight: April 2, 2026

Morning Insight:April 2, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity Market Insight： PTA:Cost vs. demand tug-of-war; buy on dips, avoid chasing highs;maintain bull spread in May–September below RMB 50/tonneThe PTA market is currently caught in a tug-of-war between rising costsand softer demand. We advise against chasing rallies, favor buying onpullbacks, and maintaining a bull spread (May–September) when the spreadis below RMB 50/tonne. On the supply side, PTA availability remains ample, with operating ratesrebounding to around 82%, while downstream polyester operating rates haveeased to 86.9%. In the near term, loose supply conditions are likely toweigh on the April contract and early-April price action. During thisrally, PTA prices may struggle to fully keep pace with upstream costincreases in crude oil and naphtha. In the spot market, elevated prices continue to face resistance, withsluggish sales prompting producers to register large volumes ofdeliverable warehouse warrants, creating pressure on the April and nearbycontracts. From a medium-term perspective, starting in April, both domestic andoverseas PX supply are expected to tighten significantly, leading to anaccelerated drawdown in PTA inventories. On the demand side, restocking willingness in the textile sector remainssubdued for now. However, certain product categories have seen rapidexport growth, and similar demand improvements could emerge in othersegments during April–May. Overall, the medium-term trend for PTA remains constructive, with astrategy focused on buying dips. Strategy:Buy on pullbacks; avoid chasing highs;Maintain bull spread(May–September) below RMB 50/tonne;Monitor hedging opportunities such aslong PX vs. short PTA, and long EB vs. short PTA Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. Leading Chinese carriers, including Air China and China SouthernAirlines, announced Wednesday that fuel surcharges for domestic routeswill be raised starting April 5. For routes of 800 kilometers or less, the fuel surcharge will be set at60 yuan (about 8.69 U.S. dollars), while for routes exceeding 800kilometers, the fuel surcharge will increase to 120 yuan per flightsegment. For tickets on domestic routes sold on or before April 4, if changes aremade on or after April 5, no price difference will be charged based onthe new standards. Chinese airlines currently levy a fuel surcharge of 10 yuan on domesticroutes of 800 kilometers or less, and 20 yuan on routes exceeding 800kilometers. (Source: Xinhua) 2. Latest tax data show that the Chinese economy has continued to performsteadily, with innovation momentum strengthening, as evidenced by robustrevenue growth in high-tech industries in the first quarter of 2026.Data released Wednesday by the State Taxation Administration showed thatsales revenue of high-tech industries for the period from Jan. 1 to March25 increased by 14.6 percent year on year. High-tech manufacturing and services saw revenues grow 12.7 percent and 15.8 percent, respectively.Driven by the demand of artificial intelligence and computing powercenters, the sales revenue of integrated circuit design and manufacturingalso saw a sharp increase, the data showed. During the same period, the sales revenue of the manufacturing sectorgrew 5.4 percent while the sales revenue of machinery and equipmentmanufacturing grew 6.3 percent, the data showed. Wednesday's data also revealed China's accelerating pace in greentransition, with the sales revenue of ecological and environmentalprotection industry rising 9.6 percent year on year. The sales revenuefrom clean energy power generation grew rapidly, accounting for 36.3percent of the total sales revenue of power production, an increase of4.5 percentage points compared from a year ago, the data showed. (Source:Xinhua) 3. The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan,strengthened 169 pips to 6.9025 against the U.S. dollar Wednesday,according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. (Source: Xinhua) Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If youare not a professional investor among the clients of Guotai Junan Futures, please do not read, subscribe to,