Morning Insight：April 22，2026

Morning Insight:April 22, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Palm Oil:Expectations vs. reality; rising floor with a clearer long-dated bullish narrative Since March, palm oil has largely been driven by international crude oilprices, with weak producing-region fundamentals and a dominant energynarrative centered on Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel mandate. As energyvolatility subsides and palm oil’s sensitivity to geopoliticaldevelopments declines, trading focus is shifting back toward supply-demand fundamentals and technical factors. From a spot fundamentals perspective, inventory drawdowns at originremain relatively slow, while high-frequency production data for Aprilhas exceeded market expectations. Demand in importing regions is clearlysuppressed by elevated prices, and substitution effects from Argentinesoybean/sunfloweroil and India’s domestic rapeseed oil continue to weighon short-term consumption. As a result, price structures at origin remainweak. In addition, negative import margins for European UCO (used cookingoil) have limited the transmission of biodiesel feedstock demand from thediesel deficit in Europe. However, as of last Friday, the Malaysian market structure has begun tostrengthen, with European UCO import margins turning positive again andtechnical support in palm oil prices becoming more evident, suggestingconditions for a short-term reversal are in place. The main overhang onfurther upside remains high production and elevated inventories atorigin, along with recurring geopolitical uncertainties, resulting in a broadly wide trading range. Looking further out, the probability of a strong El Niño is increasing,which could almost certainly lead to production losses in 2027. At thesame time, with the POGO spread at relatively low levels, the likelihoodof Indonesia accelerating full implementation of the B50 mandate hasrisen significantly. If B50 is fully implemented in the second half ofthis year, annual biodiesel consumption of palm oil could increase byaround 2 million tons year-on-year, with further increases expected into2027—potentially coinciding with weather-driven supply contraction.Balancing strong forward expectations against slow improvement in currentfundamentals, we expect the market to gradually form an annual pricefloor in Q2, with a clear upward shift in the bottom range. On strategy,dips driven by energy price pullbacks orshort-term fundamental tradingpresent opportunities to build long positions in deferred contracts andhold over the longer term. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China will reduce retail prices of gasoline and diesel from Wednesdayto reflect recent changes in international oil prices, the country's topeconomic planner said on Tuesday. Gasoline prices will be cut by 555 yuan (about 80.91 U.S. dollars) pertonne, and diesel prices will drop by 530 yuan per tonne, according tothe National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). Since the previous domestic pricing adjustment on April 7, international crude oil prices have fluctuated sharply. Although oil prices reboundednotably on April 20 after falling steeply in previous days, the averageprice during the 10 working days considered for this round of adjustmentremained lower than that recorded in the previous pricing cycle, the NDRCsaid. China's three largest oil companies, China National PetroleumCorporation, China Petrochemical Corporation and China National OffshoreOil Corporation, along with other oil refineries, have been instructed toorganize the production and transportation of refined oil products toensure a stable supply. Under China's current pricing mechanism, refined oil product prices areadjusted based on fluctuations in international crude oil prices.Relevant government departments across regions should strengthen marketsupervision and inspections. Meanwhile, they must take stringent measuresto crack down on activities violating national pricing policies andsafeguard market order, the NDRC noted. (Source: Xinhua) 2. The centralparity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan,strengthened 54 pips to 6.8594 against the U.S. dollar Tuesday, accordingto the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. (Source: Xinhua) 3. Chinese stocks closed higher on Tuesday, with the benchmark ShanghaiComposite Index up 0.07 percent to 4,085.08 points. The Shenzhen Component Index closed 0.1 percent higher at 14,982.14points. The combined turnover of the two indices totaled 2.41 trillion yuan(about 351.34 billion U.S. dollars), down from 2.58 trillion yuan on theprevious trading day. Shares in the power, coal and oil sectors led the rally, whileelectronics, medical device and furniture stocks witnessed marked losses