Morning Insight: April 15, 2026

Morning Insight:April 15, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Sugar:Weak spot fundamentals reinforced; global expectations vs. marginal improvements In the international market, sentiment remains anchored in a weakexpectations framework. From a trend perspective, the market anticipatesa recovery in global sugar production and inventory rebuilding in the2025/26 season, which is broadly bearish. In terms of timing, however,fundamentals have shown marginal improvement, as the Indian Sugar MillsAssociation has significantly revised down India’s 2025/26 productionestimates, while expectations for a decline in the MIX ratio in Brazil’sCenter-South region for the 2026/27 season have also emerged. In the domestic market, the China Association of Sugar Industry hasraised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate from 11.7 million tonnes to12.5 million tonnes, reinforcing weak spot fundamentals and puttingdownward pressure on spot prices. From a trendperspective, Zhengzhousugar futures are expected to follow international raw sugar prices,while in terms of timing, trading is likely to revolve around importflows. Conventional imports remain at relatively high levels, while non-conventional imports have declined. Notably, off-quota import costs arebelow domestic production costs, intensifying competition over pricinganchors. Going forward, attention should be paid to opportunities in low basislevels and bull spread between domestic and international markets. Equity Index Futures:Gradual recovery with volatility; pace remains keyEquity index futures have recently been trending upward in a choppyrecovery, primarily driven by easing tensions between the US and Iran.The earlier decline in the equity market below 3,800 points had alreadypriced in inflationary pressures, and as market expectations shift towardan eventual de-escalation or negotiated outcome, prices have begun torecover. In the short term, the Shanghai Composite Index has reclaimed the 4,000level, while Donald Trump has recently stated that the war with Iran hasended. If this proves accurate, the market may exhibit a“buy the rumor,sell the fact”dynamic, potentially leading to a pause in further upside.However, if this statement reflects only the US position and conditionsremain fluid, the market may still present buy-on-dip opportunities,supported by confidence in an eventual resolution. It is also important to note that if the Strait of Hormuz fails to reopensmoothly in April and oil prices remain elevated, inflation concernscould trigger a secondary rally followed by a pullback. Looking furtherahead, the base case is that Middle East-related disruptions graduallyfade, and once the index stabilizes above 4,000, market drivers arelikely to revert to pre-conflict conditions. Under a backdrop of ample liquidity, policy support, stable economicconditions, and a low interest rate environment encouraging greaterhousehold allocation to equities, the broader market is expected tomaintain a choppy upward bias. However, in line with the policypreference for a“slow bull market,”gains are likely to be gradual,with a steadily rising center rather than an aggressive upside trend. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. Beijing achieved remarkable progress in green and low-carbontransformation across key sectors during the 14th Five-Year Plan period(2021-2025), with its carbon emissions steadily declining and intensityreduction targets fully accomplished, local authorities said on Tuesday.Beijing has maintained a leading position nationwide with low carbondioxide emissions per 10,000 yuan (about 1,458 U.S. dollars) of GDP,according to the Beijing Municipal Ecology and Environment Bureau.Xu Xiangchao, director of the bureau's climate change response division,said Beijing had formulated a dedicated climate action plan for theperiod, and improved its regulatory framework by revising carbon emissiontrading management measures. More than 1,300 entities in Beijing are now covered by the carbon market,accounting for over 60 percent of the city's total carbon emissions.Since its launch 12 years ago, the Beijing carbon market has seenaccumulated trading volume exceed 64 million tonnes, with turnoverreaching 3.7 billion yuan. The average trading price of carbon quotas hasrisen notably. Moreover, the China Certified Emissions Reductions (CCER) trading marketis headquartered in Beijing. By the end of 2025, more than 3,000 entitieshad opened accounts, with total trading volume surpassing 9.2 milliontonnes and turnover hitting 650 millionyuan. To engage the public in low-carbon endeavors, Beijing has introduced acarbon inclusion mechanism that quantifies and encourages green behaviorssuch as using