Morning Insight: March 9, 2026

Morning Insight:March 9, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Crude oil:Reopening of shipping routes remains difficult, and upsiderisks should continue to be monitored. As more Gulf countries such as Iraq and Kuwait announce crude productioncuts, the disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has begun tomaterially transmit to the supply side of the oil market, reinforcingexpectations of tighter medium-to long-term supply. Even if geopoliticaltensions ease in the short term, the resumption of navigation and therestart of curtailed oil fields would still face significant challenges.From a shipping perspective, even if passage is restored, trade flows areunlikely to quickly return to 100% of normal levels. If flows onlyrecover to about 70–80%, this would still correspond to a supply loss ofroughly 4.5–7 million barrels per day. In such a scenario, OPEC wouldneed to significantly increase production later on, potentially creatingexpectations of surplus supply in deferred months. Under theseconditions, international benchmarks could have the opportunity to rallytoward the USD 120–150 per barrel range. In addition, we note that inventories at WTI delivery hubs are currentlyvery low. There is a need to be cautious about potential volatilitysimilar to the “negative oil price” episode in April 2020, when extremedislocations occurred. WTI could experiencesharp single-day upward movesand significantly outperform Brent. From a strategy perspective, maintaining long positions is recommended,while gradually taking profits on the long SC versus short Brent trade. Given the potential for heightened volatility at elevated price levels,investors should remain vigilant and manage risks carefully. Soybean meal:Driven by the Middle East conflict, futures prices havereached a new stage high. On March 6, 2026, soybean meal futures brokehigher, with the main contract hitting its highest level since April 28,2025. The reasons are as follows. First, there are no new marginalbearish factors in the fundamentals, giving soybean meal a valuationadvantage and room for catch-up gains. Brazil’s soybean harvest has beenrelatively slow, while hot and dry weather in southern producing regionshas prompted some institutionsto revise production estimates lower,providing slightly bullish support to fundamentals. Second, thetransmission path from the Middle East conflict to soybean meal pricesoperates through several channels. A sharp rise in crude oil has liftedU.S. soybean oil prices based on the biofuel substitution logic. Highersoybean oil prices have in turn pushed up U.S. soybean prices due todemand dynamics within the soybean complex. Rising U.S. soybean pricesthen drive gains in domestic soybean meal futures through higher importcosts for soybeans used as raw materials. Third, from a logisticsperspective, it remains uncertain whether the Middle East conflict willaffect the arrival timing of imported soybeans to China, leaving someuncertainty. Against this backdrop, sentiment in the domestic soybeanmeal market has strengthened, leading to a catch-up rally. With theMiddle East conflict ongoing and market sentiment remaining strong,soybean meal futures are expected to maintain a firm tone with a higherprice center. However, given the complexity and unpredictability of theconflict, close monitoring is necessary, as shifts in the geopoliticalsituation could alter market sentiment and lead to increased volatility,including potential sharp rallies followed by pullbacks, making riskmanagement essential. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's foreign exchange reserves totaled 3.4278 trillion U.S. dollarsat the end of February 2026, marking an increase of 28.7 billion dollars,or 0.85 percent, from the end of January, official data showed onSaturday. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange noted that the U.S. dollarindex increased in February, while prices of major global financialassets saw mixed movements, influenced by macroeconomic data, monetarypolicies, and market expectations in major economies. The combined effects of exchange rate conversion and changes in assetprices contributed to the increase in China's foreign exchange reservesduring the month, the administration said. China's economy registered steady and improving performance, with new andhigher-quality development momentum, the administration noted. Thesupporting conditions and underlying trend for the long-term sounddevelopment of the Chinese economy remain unchanged, providing solidsupport in the quest to keep the scale of foreign exchange reservesbasically stable, it added. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China has no need or intention to seek competitive edges in foreigntrade thr