Morning Insight: March 24, 2026

Morning Insight:March 24, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Ethylene:Sharp rise in near-term Asian prices; marginal softening riskamid balanced contraction in supply and demand Near-term ethylene prices in Asia have surged rapidly, as disruptions toMiddle Eastern naphtha logistics have triggered widespread negativeoperating feedback across Asian steam crackers. To date, nearly 16million tonnes of ethylene capacity in Asia hasbeen shut down.However, most cracker shutdowns are accompanied by correspondingdownstream unit closures, limiting the impact on merchant ethyleneavailability. That said, run cuts at crackers in Japan and South Koreahave had a more meaningful impact on circulating supply within theregion. Overall, the current Asian ethylene supply disruption has had limitedimpact on the domestic market. In fact, domestic conditions arerelatively looser, as demand contraction has been more pronounced,leading to increased merchant ethylene availability. This surplus isbeing redirected via exports to subsidize markets in Northeast Asia andSoutheast Asia, effectively leaving the domestic market in a state ofrelative oversupply. From this perspective, the incremental merchant volumes requiresufficient downstream absorption capacity. However, the rapid rise inprompt USD-denominated prices has already triggered downstreamresistance. We therefore believe that, under the current backdrop of simultaneous contraction in both supply and demand, ethylene is not fundamentallytight. At elevated levels, prices may be showing early signs of marginalweakening. Equity Index Futures:Short-term oversold rebound; sustainability dependson geopolitical developments In the near term, a technical rebound from oversold conditions is likely.Overnight, Donald Trump once again released a TACO-style signal, drivinga strong rebound across global risk assets. Market chatter also suggeststhat the US and Iran may initiate talks in a third country, significantlyincreasing the probability of short-term de-escalation. Coupled with thepronounced oversold conditions seen previously, a near-term rebound isexpected. Looking ahead, however, the sustainability of any recovery will stillhinge on the evolution of the situation. Iran’s public stance remainsrelatively firm, and if negotiations fail, markets may continue toexperience volatility and reversals. More broadly, persistently elevated oil prices are reinforcinginflationary pressures and tightening expectations for monetary policy,which in turn constrain the scope for aggressive US escalation. Aroundthe 3,800 level in the Shanghai Composite Index, the probability of afurther sharp decline appears limited—unless the market begins to pricein a more extreme scenario of crude oil rising toward USD 150–200 perbarrel. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's top economic planner announced that temporary control measureson retail prices of gasoline and diesel have been implemented startingMonday amid increases in international oil prices. The measures have been adopted to mitigate the impact of the abnormalrise in international oil prices, reduce the burden on downstream users,and ensure stable economic operation and social livelihood, noted astatement released by the National Development and Reform Commission.Gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 1,160 yuan (about 168 U.S.dollars) and 1,115 yuan per tonne, respectively, according to thestatement. 2. The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan,weakened 143 pips to 6.9041 against the U.S. dollar Monday, according tothe China Foreign Exchange Trade System. (Source: Xinhua) 3. Hong Kong's stock market ended lower Monday with the benchmark HangSeng Index down 3.54 percent to close at 24,382.47 points.The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 3.11 percent to end at8,307.82 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 3.28 percent to endat 4,712.48 points. (Source: Xinhua) Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If youare not a professional investor among the clients of Guotai Junan Futures, please do not read, subscribe to, or receive anyrelatedinformation from