Morning Insight: January 9, 2026

Morning Insight:January 9, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Silver:We have observed several recent changes in the silver market.Previously, concentrated domestic speculative inflows and downstreamrestocking activities pushed domestic spot premiums to elevated levels,but these have recently eased; meanwhile, overseas silver leasing rateshave declined significantly, with the 1-month rate falling from above 8%to around 4.46%, and the market structure shifting from backwardation tocontango. In terms of spreads, although the LME–COMEX premium remains,the internal–external price spread has narrowed and domestic premiumscontinue to be squeezed. On the capital side, exchanges have tightenedrisk controls on silver by limiting maximum open interest, dampeninglong-side enthusiasm. In addition, the January 8 BCOM weight adjustment,while limited in absolute scale, may have a disproportionate impact onpositioning at current high levels where both longs and shorts arehesitant, and the U.S. Supreme Court’s upcoming ruling on the legality ofTrump-era tariffs could become a key falsification factor for the broaderlogic underpinning spot silver tightness. Taken together, these signalssuggest that the pressure on longs to continue pushing prices higher isincreasing, with spot tightness likely having reached a short-term peakafter the New Year, and both funding and fundamentals showing signs oflosing momentum, making further upside breakouts increasingly demanding.From a strategic perspective, this implies that trend-following longpositions in silver have value in exiting. However, this does not meanthe silver trend has ended or that a clear trend short opportunity has emerged: under a still-warm macro environment characterized by steadilyimproving economic data, ample liquidity, and stable monetary policyexpectations, the long-term commodity trend floor should continue torise; geopolitical tensions also remain supportive for resources over thelong cycle; and the previously highlighted spot silver tightness has notyet reversed. Therefore, we view the current pullback as a correctivephase rather than the end of the broader uptrend, but note that currentprice levelsoffer an unfavorable risk–reward profile and the adjustmentis not yet complete, with further spot market tightening needed to re-lead futures higher. Ferrous complex:Prices are facing resistance from prior highs, andchasing rallies should be approached cautiously before a clear breakout.Tightening disruptions on the coking coal supply side have kept coal andcoke prices relatively strong, while expectations for hot metalproduction resumption and winter restocking by steel mills persist,leading iron ore prices to fluctuate at elevated levels. Although steelsupply and demand remain loose, cost support has driven a rebound infutures prices; however, from a technicalperspective, the ferrous indexas well as rebar, hot-rolled coil, and coke contracts are allencountering resistance near previous highs, suggesting that aggressivelong positioning may be better considered after prices break through. Onthe iron side, long-term pressure remains due to lackluster end-demand,gradually loosening ore supply, and persistently high inventoryaccumulation, while in the short term, ongoing expectations of hot metalrecovery and winter restocking, coupled with unresolved negotiations andtight liquidity of mid-grade ore inventories, are supporting iron oreprices in a high-level consolidation. On the carbon side, medium-to long-term supply tightening points to anupward shift in the price center, as recent market rumors that some coalmines were removed from the supply-guarantee list due to unmetobligations imply potential capacity reductions,signaling a policy shift from“expanding output to ensure supply”toward“controlling volume andimproving quality,”which has altered market expectations for future coalsupply despite the limited capacity directly involved. For ferroalloys, silicomanganese fundamentals remain loose, with highinventories at upstream alloy producers and significant destockingpressure, making elevated prices vulnerable to hedging selling andsuggesting that futures prices may retreat toward cost levels over themedium term, warranting caution in chasing rallies; meanwhile,ferrosilicon faces moderate supply and inventory pressure, and with therebound in coking coal prices and potential increases in power costs inShaanxi, prices are likely toremain in high-level consolidation in thenear term. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's futures market posted robust growth last year, recordingdouble-digit increases in both its trading turnover and volume,industrial data has shown. Its total t