Morning Insight: January 29, 2026

Morning Insight:January 29, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Electrolytic aluminum:Aluminum has once again led gains in thenonferrous metals sector, rising more than 5% during yesterday’s daytimesession and continuing to outperform in night trading. Absolute priceshave already broken through historical record highs and may further openup upside space. We are more inclined to attribute this breakout toequity–futures linkage driven by capital flows, with aluminum-relatedequities showing even greater elasticity. This strong cross-market riskappetite from funds is the key force behindthe current rally and thereason Shanghai aluminum has taken the lead. In the near term, during theseasonal off-peak for spot demand, micro-level supply and demand remainweak, but the dominant driver for nonferrous metals continues to becapital risk appetite and overseas macro narratives. At present, no clearinflection point has emerged in terms of AI-related demand orgeopolitical risk premiums for resources. Under the current high-pricetrend environment, while maintaining core futures positions, it may beappropriate to use options for nonlinear hedging. Polyolefins:Recently, polyolefin futures have shown a relatively strongperformance, with a fairly sustained rally since late December. Thisround of gains has featured resonance between the equity and futuresmarkets. We believe the trading logic has shifted from earlier weak spotfundamentals to stronger expectations driven by“domestic anti–involution policies plus overseas cracking capacity phase-out.”With the implementation of policies such as the cancellation of PVC export taxrebates and the imposition of consumption taxes on naphtha, marketexpectations for anti–involution measures in the chemical industry andaccelerated industrial upgrading have been further reinforced. At thesame time, the long-cycle narrative of overseas cracking unit retirementshas been validated in 2025, and recent additions to cracking maintenanceplans in Europe have strengthened expectations for Chinese chemicalexports. As a result, the energy and chemical sector has generallyperformed strongly, and polyolefin valuations have seen some repair. Froma fundamentals perspective, supported by relatively strong crude oil andpropane prices on the cost side, weighted polyolefin marginshaveimproved, though the magnitude remains limited. On the supply side,divergence is evident: PE standard-grade operating schedules arerebounding and subsequent maintenance plans are declining, pointing to apotential recovery in supply, while PP facesrelatively large-scale PDHunit maintenance in the first quarter, suggesting limited upside in itssupply center. With oil prices providing support, spot market positivefeedback was evident earlier, and inventories across the mid-andupstream have been drawing down. Although downstream demand is expectedto weaken ahead of the year-end, the pricing weight of weak spotfundamentals remains limited in the near term, and prices are likely tofluctuate on the stronger side. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. Outbound investment by Chinese companies grew steadily in 2025, withnearly 80 percent of surveyed firms maintaining or expanding theirinvestments abroad, according to a report by the China Council for thePromotion of International Trade. Covering over 1,200 Chinese companies engaged in outbound investment, thesurvey reveals that nearly 90 percent are optimistic about the prospectsof overseas investment, said Wang Wenshuai, a spokesperson with the council, at a press conference on Wednesday. The survey also indicates that 60 percent of the companies reportedsteady or increased profitability from their outbound investment. Closeto half of the respondents expressed interest in forming industryconsortiums for collective overseas expansion, with the manufacturingsector being a priority for investment. Notably, 90 percent of the surveyed enterprises showed heightenedwillingness to use the renminbi (RMB) in their cross-border investmentactivities. Data from the Ministry of Commerce showed that China's outbound directinvestment reached 174.38 billion U.S. dollars in 2025, up 7.1 percentfrom a year earlier and remaining among the world's top ranks.Wang stated that the council will coordinate its nationwide network torefine specialized mechanisms for supporting enterprises going global.Efforts will concentrate on improving comprehensive services andsafeguards to help companies navigate international markets steadily andsustainably. Meanwhile, nearly 60 percent of foreign-invested enterprises in Chinaplan to increase their investment in the country, Wang said, citingrecent results of the China Business Clima