Morning Insight: January 30, 2026

Morning Insight:January 30, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Copper:The bullish structure remains intact, but volatility mayincrease, warranting more cautious trading. Copper prices rose notablyyesterday, mainly driven by a weaker US dollar, intensifying disruptionsto copper mine production, and optimistic market expectations for thedevelopment of AI computing centers. However, during the night session,slower growth in Microsoft’s cloud business triggered concerns over theAI outlook, leading to broad sell-offs in AI-related equities and a sharppullback in copper andother commodities. That said, longer-term upsidedrivers are still in place: although the Federal Reserve has paused ratecuts for now, Wall Street is betting that a new chair may restart easingas early as June, while on the fundamentals side, the risk offurthercopper mine supply disruptions remains, and demand growth from emergingsectors such as AI data centers continues to look solid. From a tradingperspective, the market is currently focused on broad narratives andlong-term themes, which carry higher uncertainty and instability, soinvestors are advised to trade cautiously and maintain strict positioncontrol. Crude oil:Prices may spike again under geopolitical influences. Lastnight, volatility in both domestic and overseas crude oil marketsincreased sharply. As tensions in the Middle East escalated rapidly,crude prices surged, with domestic crude oil futures at one point hittingthe daily limit up. Subsequently, amid spillover pressure from US equities, precious metals, base metals, and energy commodities saw asynchronized pullback, but overseas crude prices ultimately rebounded andstabilized into the close. We believe that short-term upside risks foroil prices have not yet been fully alleviated. Against the backdrop ofheightened Middle East tensions, oil prices may still strengthen sharplyagain and retest last night’s highs, with Brent potentially breakingabove USD 70 per barrel once more and SC crude exceeding RMB 495 perbarrel, which warrants close monitoring. From a trend perspective, givenunderlying oversupply pressures, the broader trajectory for oil prices inthe first half of the year remains one of range-bound weakness. Afterthis round of geopolitically driven rebound fades, prices may resume adownward trend and test new lows, as discussed in detail in our 2026crude oil annual outlook. In terms of the domestic–overseas price spread,SC crude valuations are neutral to slightly low; stripping out exchangerate effects, SC may continue to outperform overseas benchmarks in theshort term during rebound phases. Synthetic rubber:In the short term, capital flows determine pricemovements. Against the macro narrative of incremental funds allocatingmore heavily to the chemicals sector, butadiene and BR rubber are runningrelatively strong in the near term. On the other hand, we haveobservedheightened volatility at elevated levels in energy and precious metalsprices during the night session, so intraday price action will dependmore on overall sentiment in the commodity index. There are two mainreasons for this. First, energy prices remain firm, driving continuedstrength in the oil products complex. Second, butadiene’s relativelystrong short-term fundamentals have created a cost-push effect forsynthetic rubber. On the feedstock side for BR rubber, butadiene iscurrently characterized by both strong spot fundamentals and strongexpectations. On the supply side, China’s ethylene cracking operatingrates remain high, and domestic butadiene output is at a relatively highyear-on-year level compared with recent years. Meanwhile, due to margin pressure, ethylene units in Asia face constrained operating rates,leading to supply contraction; rising international butadiene prices havein turn driven domestic butadiene prices higher. On the demand side,strong production margins in synthetic rubberkeep demand for butadieneelevated, while demand from ABS and SBS remains stable. Overall,butadiene’s short-term fundamentals are neutral to slightly strong,providing support to spot prices. For BR rubber, apparent demand remainsat a high level, with noobvious fundamental contradictions at present,and price movements are mainly following changes on the cost side. Coking coal:Fundamentals are weak on both the supply and demand sides,with sentiment playing the dominant role. Ahead of the Spring Festival,coal and coke supply and demand are undergoing a structural repair. Onthe supply side, coking coal production areas are showing expectations oftightening, and considering that coal mines will suspend operations andtake holidays before year-end, upstream inventories continue to decline,with no significant inventory pressure for the time being. At the sametime, downstream sectors are in a replenishment cycle, and rigid demandprocurement still provides some sup