Morning Insight: February 4 2026

Morning Insight:February 4 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Chemicals:The current key contradictions in the chemicals sector aremainly twofold. First, there is the expectation of industry-wide profitrecovery driven by the“anti–involution”narrative. In the overallrally of the chemicals sector in January, profit recovery expectationsstemming from the anti–involution theme constituted the primary driver.At present, the aromatics segment has already achieved substantialprofitability, while the olefins segment has seen relatively smallergains, with some products such as polypropylene still operating at aloss. Second, there is the geopolitical premium associated with Iran.Iran mainly affects cost support across the chemicals complex, as well asrelated products including methanol, LPG, ethylene glycol, plastics, andurea.Most chemical contracts have given back the Iranian premium thisweek, indicating that Iran-related risks are currently not priced intochemical products. We believe that domestic chemical product margins have already passedtheir cyclical trough, but the issue of excess existing capacity has notbeen resolved even under higher profit levels. Moreover, the anti–involution narrative has yet to be matched by concrete policy measures,and the second quarter may represent a more favorable window for astronger manifestation of this theme. Under the combined influence ofanti–involution expectations and the Iran-related premium, we suggestoverweighting products that are Iran-related but have not yet shown aclear premium from the anti–involution narrative, while underweighting those that have already reflected a pronounced anti–involution premiumbut are less directly exposed to Iran-related factors. This is a short-to medium-term strategy. Over the longer term, if the overall chemicalssector undergoes a more pronounced pullback due to weak near-termfundamentals, it may present a better opportunity for increasing longexposure. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. The provisional estimate of total retail sales value in Hong Kong forDecember stood at 35 billion Hong Kong dollars (about 4.48 billion U.S.dollars), up 6.6 percent year on year, local data showed Tuesday.Online sales came in at 3.1 billion Hong Kong dollars, surging 30.9percent year on year and accounting for 8.8 percent of the total retailsales value, data from the Census and Statistics Department of the HongKong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) government showed.Provisional estimate for retail sales value in 2025 stood at 380.5billion Hong Kong dollars, up by 1 percent compared with 2024. Salesvolume was on par with that of the previous year.Looking ahead, improving local consumption sentiment underpinned byrobust economic growth momentum, together with continued vibrant growthin visitors, will continue to bolster retail businesses, said aspokesperson for the HKSAR government. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China's home appliance giant Haier on Monday held a launch ceremony inJohannesburg, South Africa's economic hub, marking its official entryinto the South African market. Li Huagang, senior vice president of Haier Group, described South Africaas a strategically important market with significant opportunities. He said the company places high importance on the market and views it as akey hub for future expansion across the wider southern African region.Highlighting its focus on environmentally friendly innovation, Haiershowcased a range of smart home appliances at the event, includingwashing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners. Li said Haier has tailored its product lineup to local market conditions,introducing solutions designed to meet customer needs, such as solar-powered air conditioners aimed at easing the burden of high electricitycosts. Vuyiswa Ramokgopa, a member of the Gauteng Executive Council forAgriculture and Rural Development, welcomed the company's investment,noting its potential contribution to local economic development."Haier's launch in South Africa is far more than just a ceremonial launchbut a strategic milestone that speaks to global companies' confidence inthe long-term trajectory of our economy at the time of global change anduncertainty," she added. Haier plans to open an industrial park within the next three years tosupport Africa's industrialization drive and create jobs, according toLi. The launch event was attended by 200 guests, including government andindustry representatives, business partners, and media representatives.As a global leader in home appliances, Haier now operates in over 200countries and regions worldwide. (Source: Xinhua) 3. The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan,strength