Morning Insight: May 7, 2026

Morning Insight:May 7, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Lithium Carbonate:Strong supply and demand fundamentals, watch fornegative feedback from end-users. Yesterday, long positions significantlyincreased in the lithium carbonate futures market, with the main contractclosing at 199,400 CNY/ton, up 7.3%. Entering May, the market isincreasingly trading on the narrative of tightness at the physical level.On the mining side, the export restrictions imposed on Zimbabwean minesat the end of February will gradually materialize in the domestic marketin May, while mines in Jiangxihave yet to show signs of resumingproduction, so mining-side contradictions persist. From a supply-demandperspective, the ongoing commissioning of new cathode material productioncapacity continues to boost downstream demand for lithium carbonate, withcathode production schedules in May and June both increasing month-on-month, leading to an overall destocking pattern in supply and demand.Currently, although futures prices are rising, the spot basis remainsweak, indicating that downstream acceptance ofhigh prices is limited.Moreover, with futures prices breaking through previous highs andapproaching round-number thresholds, short-term market volatility isnotably intensifying. Attention should be paid to fund flows andpotential negative feedback fromend-users. Container Freight Index (European Route):Yesterday, the main contract2606 closed at 2392.1 points, up 5.07%, primarily driven by Maersk's week21 freight rate hike exceeding market expectations. The market hadanticipated a hike of 100–300 USD/FEU, but the actual increase was 300– 500 USD/FEU. From the current supply-demand perspective, cargo volumesare likely to rise seasonally from April to June; May capacity isbasically flat with April at 313,000 TEU per week, so the improvement inMay fundamentals relative to April is fairly certain, supporting a highermonthly freight rate center. Currently, static capacity for June is up4.2% month-on-month to 326,000 TEU per week; if three pending sailingsare included, capacity reaches 337,000 TEU per week, a 7.7% monthlyincrease. In summary, the June capacity increase is relatively neutral;attention should be paid to the evolution of the pending sailings andwhether carriers will add extra vessels under the current high-profitenvironment. On valuation, Maersk's week 21 has two tiers: Rotterdam andHamburg are hiked by 500 to 2900/3000 (40GP/40HC), while other Europeanbase ports are hiked by 300 to 2700/2800 (40GP/40HC). Using this as ananchor, the neutral projection for the market's weekly average rate isaround 2900 USD/FEU, roughly equivalent to a SCFIS index of about 2000points. The delivery settlement range for the 2605 contract is expectedto further narrow to 1800–1850 points. The near-month container freightindex (European route) futures are expected to show a volatile butstronger trend; however, a significant upward move may require newfundamental drivers in June. Caustic Soda:Short-term rebound. Caustic soda futures rebounded sharplyafter the Labor Day holiday, mainly due to concentrated maintenance onthe supply side in May, an unexpected decline in inventories, andexpectations of falling liquid chlorine prices. From a maintenanceperspective, caustic soda maintenance in May involves capacity of 5million tons; if all maintenance is implemented, destocking willcontinue. Additionally, the expected decline in liquid chlorine prices onthe cost side will support caustic soda. Losses in the downstreamchlorine-consuming PO (propylene oxide) sector have widened, approachinglows seen in recent years. Other chlorine-consuming downstream sectorsare also generally facing declining profits, and negative feedback on liquid chlorine demand is leading to expectations of future price cutsfor liquid chlorine. Once liquid chlorine prices continue to fall,caustic soda profits will be rapidly compressed, creating a low-valuationpattern. Overall, caustic soda has maintenance support in May, but highabsolute inventory levels and futures premiums will limit the reboundmomentum. If maintenance proceeds smoothly, spot prices rebound, andinventories continue to destock, one may consider phased calendar spreadlongs. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday that it will issue atotal of 84 billion yuan (about 12.25 billion U.S. dollars) of renminbi-denominated treasury bonds in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Regionthis year. The bonds will be issued in six batches, according to the ministry. Thefirst two batches, totaling 29.5 billion yuan, have already been issuedin February and April, respectively. In order to effectively support the renminbi's internationali