Morning Insight: March 31, 2026

Morning Insight:March 31, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Caustic Soda:Valuations at low levels; likely to trade with a firm biasover time Recently, caustic soda futures have pulled back, with the bearishnarrative mainly driven by near-month delivery pressure and weakerfollow-through on high-priced export orders. At the same time, elevatedinventories have capped spot price elasticity for 32% liquid caustic,leading to a sharp convergence in basis. The May (05) contract is nowtrading roughly at parity with spot. However, considering that delivery volumes to Weiqiao Pioneering Groupremain relatively low, there is still upside expectation for procurementprices. In addition, 32% caustic prices continue to show a convergencetrend toward 50% caustic, suggesting thatcurrent valuations have alreadyreached relatively low levels. From a medium-to long-term perspective, attention should remain ondevelopments in the Middle East. If tensions persist into April, deeperrun cuts at overseas refining and petrochemical facilities are likely,alongside significant reductions in domesticethylene-based PVCproduction. Through the chlor-alkali balance mechanism, this would leadto passive reductions in caustic soda output. Moreover, the Middle East, as a net exporter of caustic soda, may facedisruptions in fulfilling long-term contract supply. Given that thesevolumes largely represent rigid demand, procurement is likely to bedelayed rather than cancelled. Overall, while short-term price pressure stems from weaker high-pricedexport transactions, elevated inventories, and near-month deliverypressure, the medium-term supply-demand outlook is expected to improve.With procurement prices from Weiqiao still trending higher, the market islikely to regain a firm bias. Focus: Ongoing developments in overseas plant operations and the pace ofChina’s export order bookings. Container Freight Index (Europe Route):Front-month tracks weakfundamentals; deferred contracts supported by peak-season andgeopolitical premium Yesterday, EC Apr-26 (EC2604) traded weaker on declining open interest,closing down 1%, while EC Jun-26 (EC2606) surged more than 6%. The front-month continues to track spot fundamentals. Weak cargo loadingconditions are weighing on near-term rate hike expectations. As EC2604gradually rolls off into delivery, EC2605 has become the primary contractfor short positioning roll, while EC2606–EC2608, supported by typicalpeak-season expectations and an added geopolitical premium, have showngreater resilience and are preferred for long roll positioning. On the physical side, during the second week of April, the FE4 service atShanghai port is facing significant cargo booking pressure. As of now,the FE4 vessel operated by Ocean Network Express is not yet fully booked,which is weighing on pricing for sailings in the latter half of themonth. Currently, EC2604 is trading roughly in line with Week 15 spot freightrates at around 1,700–1,800 points. Market focus is on guidance fromMaersk for Week 16 sailings, which will help anchor the settlement rangefor EC2604. EC2605 is expected to continue tracking spot fundamentals, with itspremium over EC2604 likely to narrow gradually. Meanwhile, EC2606 andfurther deferred contracts are more sensitive to geopoliticaldevelopments and are likely to experience wide volatility. With geopolitical tensions unlikely to ease meaningfully in the near term,outright price swings may remain significant. Strategy: Consider seasonal calendar spread opportunities—entering bullspreads (widening positions) on compression. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. Agricultural Bank of China, one of the country's biggest state-ownedcommercial banks, on Monday reported stronger lending and higher profitand revenue in 2025. The bank reported reasonable growth in total financing. By the end of2025, its total assets stood at 48.8 trillion yuan (about 7.05 trillionU.S. dollars), including 27.13 trillion yuan in loans, up by 2.23trillion yuan from the beginning of the year. The bank provided stronger and more effective support for the realeconomy. By the end of 2025, its outstanding technology loans stood at4.7 trillion yuan, up 20.1 percent year on year, while outstanding greenloans totaled 5.93 trillion yuan, up 18.7 percent. Outstanding inclusive finance loans reached 4.35 trillion yuan, anincrease of 749.9 billion yuan. Outstanding personal consumption loans,including credit card lending, came in at 1.45 trillion yuan, up 9percent. The bank's net profit and operating revenue both posted positive growthlast year. Net profit reached 292 billion yuan, up 3.3 percent year onyear, while operating revenue rose to 725.3 billion yuan, up