Morning Insight: March 10, 2026

Morning Insight:March 10, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Fuel oil:Prices have surged strongly and may gradually approachhistorical highs. Under the current situation where the Strait of Hormuzis fully blocked and refineries in Iran and neighboring Middle Easterncountries have begun lowering operating rates due to oilfield productioncuts and difficulties exporting products, fuel oil prices have risensharply over the past two weeks. Unlike the logistics rerouting seenduring the Russia–Ukraine conflict, this geopolitical event has not onlyreduced exports but has alsoled to refinery capacity being taken offlinein the Persian Gulf region because of attacks and feedstock shortages. Aslong as tensions do not ease, normal production and export operations inthe region are unlikely to resume, meaning the supply gap couldpersistand potentially widen over time. Given that the Middle East has becomethe world’s most important supplier of high-sulfur fuel oil over the pasttwo years, if the current geopolitical situation continues, the supplydeficit in the region will likely remain, providing strong momentum forboth spot and paper fuel oil prices to move higher. In such a scenario,price highs could gradually approach the peak levels seen during theRussia–Ukraine conflict. However, as there have been some recent signs ofeasing geopolitical tensions, cooling market sentiment may influence thepace of further gains, making it important to closely monitor subsequentdevelopments. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China will raise its retail prices of gasoline and diesel fromTuesday, following a sharp rise in international oil prices, thecountry's top economic planner said on Monday. Gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 695 yuan (about 100.5 U.S.dollars) and 670 yuan per tonne, respectively, according to a statementreleased by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).The NDRC's price monitoring center said that developments in the MiddleEast will be the key factor influencing global oil price trends in theperiod ahead. China's three biggest oil companies--the China National PetroleumCorporation, the China Petrochemical Corporation, and the China NationalOffshore Oil Corporation--and other refineries have been directed tomaintain production and facilitate transportation to ensure stablesupplies. Relevant departments in various regions should intensify their marketsupervision and inspection efforts. They should implement strict measuresto crack down on activities that violate national pricing policies toensure market order, the NDRC said. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China's consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, rose 1.3 percent year on year last month, official data showed on Monday.The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 1.8percent year on year, according to data released by the National Bureauof Statistics (NBS).On a month-on-month basis, CPI went up 1 percent in February, the datarevealed. (Source: Xinhua) 3. China's producer price index (PPI), which measures costs for goods atthe factory gate, went down 0.9 percent year on year in February, theNational Bureau of Statistics said Monday. (Source: Xinhua) Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If youare not a professional investor among the clients of Guotai Junan Futures, please do not read, subscribe to, or receive anyrelatedinformation from the Company. This report does not constitute a recommendation for any specific business activities,nor should it be considered as any investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. The Company does not consider the recipientof this report to be an automatic client of the Company. Please make investment decisions based on your own risk toleranceand bear the corresponding investment risks independently. Do not rely on this content for specific investment actions. Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. Thi