Morning Insight: December 10, 2025

Morning Insight:December 10, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： MEG:Several units have undergone unplanned rate cuts, providing short-term support. The current price of 3,600 yuan/ton has already touched the cost line ofmost operating units, and multiple plants have recently announcedproduction cuts. This week, CNOOC-Shell’s 400,000-ton unit beganmaintenance, Shenghong Petrochemical’s 1-million-ton unit has alreadyshut down, Xinjiang Tianye’s 600,000-ton unit may postpone its restart tothe second quarter of next year, Sichuan Zhengdakai’s 600,000-ton unithas extended its maintenance period, and Sanjiang Petrochemical hasreduced operating rates by 30%. In addition, Zhejiang Petrochemical isalso planning product adjustments, leading to a decline in ethyleneglycol output. Based on the newly added maintenance, inventories inDecember may not build and could even see a slight drawdown. Attention isneeded on spot supply during the delivery period of the January contract,as basis repair may occur. But in the medium term, over the next 2–3months, ethylene glycol will remain in a pattern of increasing supply anddecreasing demand. In terms of new capacity, Ningxia Kunpeng and BASFZhanjiang will be brought online one after another. Polyester plantoperating rates will fall to 84% in February, and MEG’s upside remainslimited for now. Single-side prices are expected to stay within the3,600–3,900 range. U.S. Soybeans:Early this morning, the USDA released the December globalsoybean supply and demand report. This report made no major adjustmentsto global soybean supply and demand data, only minor tweaks to certainregions. This approach is consistent with the usual pattern—unless aparticularly significant event occurs, the USDA generally does not makemajor changes to the S&D report in December. In the short term, soybeans are facing multiple bearish factors: First, the market had expected China to purchase 12 million tons of U.S.soybeans before the end of 2025, but this timeline has now been pushedback by two months to completion before the Chinese New Year. Second,Argentina has lowered its soybean export tax by 2% to 24%. Finally,Brazil’s rainy season has fully returned, with favorable precipitationforecasts in the main production areas; only Argentina’s productionregions show signs of drought. Concerns over South American soybeanyields have been slightly eased. From a medium-term perspective, the downside for U.S. soybeans islimited. First, China is highly likely to fulfill its commitments, andcontinued purchases of U.S. soybeans will provide strong support to CBOTprices. Second, after the surge of tax-exempt agricultural exports inOctober, Argentina’s export potential is limited and will notsignificantly impact global supply and demand. Third, Brazil has onlynearly completed planting, and Argentina is just over halfway through;the critical growing period has not yet arrived, and crops remain verysensitive to weather. Therefore, we believe U.S. soybeans are most likelyto trade in a horizontal consolidation pattern. Platinum & Palladium:Since last Monday, platinum has seen relativelymuted trading for six consecutive sessions, moving within a clear range,with both the upper and lower boundaries quite obvious. Last night,driven by silver breaking out again, platinum made its own directionalmove and successfully climbed above 1,680 USD. However, looking at high-frequency data such as the NYMEX front-month–London platinum price spread remaining around 10 USD/oz, ETF holdings continuing to see netoutflows, and no significant rise in lease rates, platinum does not havethe fundamental indicators needed for a substantial short-term rally.Technically, platinum also faces selling pressure around the previoushigh of 1,730 USD on the external market, and close attention should bepaid to whether it can break through. Over the past half month, palladium has shown a very clear pattern ofrising daily-chart lows, and combined with the rapid accumulation of ETFholdings—both the absolute level of positions and the pace of increasesrising at the margin—palladium has outperformed platinum over the pastweek. For palladium, close attention should also be paid to the keypsychological level of 1,500 USD; if it breaks through effectively andETF inflows continue, palladium may open up new upside potential. From a medium-term perspective, the imbalance in the spot structure ofplatinum and palladium has not yet been fundamentally resolved, and themedium-term bullish fundamental logic still stands. If both platinum andpalladium successfully break through theindicated resistance levels inthe next two days, one may watch whether precious metals undergo apullback after FOMC easing benefits are fully priced in, which couldpresent a relatively favorable opportunity to re-enter long positions. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNA