Morning Insight: December 9, 2025

Morning Insight:December 9, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Glass:The trend remains weak. The main pressures in the market currentlycome from two aspects. First, forward-market premiums are relativelylarge. Second, the production-cut factor that had been repeatedly tradedearlier has not seen further progress recently. Since the market is now in the period when major funds shift theirpositions from the JAN 01 contract to the MAY 05 contract—and the MAY 05contract carries a large premium—the market’s pricing is paying lessattention to spot-market fluctuations and is instead focusing more on thehigh valuation of the forward contract. Regarding production cuts, although the trend toward reduced glass-industry output by 2026 is clear, the true deadline that would forcemeaningful cuts is still relatively far away. As a result, the actualpace of production cuts has been slow. Over the past three months, undermarket pressure and policy influence, actual operating capacity in theglass industry has only declined by 3.7%. Even with production-cutsupport, glass manufacturers’inventories in early December remained 23%higher year-on-year. In summary, due to large forward premiums and production cuts fallingshort of expectations, glass prices remain weak. However, it is worthnoting that basis and calendar spreads have strengthened recently, andspot transactions are stable. The core driverfor the bears is still thehigh valuation of forward contracts. As prices approach multi-year lows,caution is needed when chasing shorts at low levels. Coal:Weak demand realities and expectations of ample supply havestrengthened consensus, and prices have weakened again. The NDRC recently reiterated its regulatory stance on ensuring stableenergy production and supply, which has reversed the market’s marginalexpectations for upstream coal supply. In the short term, this consensusis difficult to disprove, and coking-coal futures were the first to see amajor downturn in mid-November. Meanwhile, spot prices for thermal coal at northern ports had beenholding relatively firm around 830 yuan, but as inventory pressurecontinued to build, prices began to soften on November 25. After enteringDecember, they began a rapid consecutive declineand recently fell belowthe 800-yuan mark. The breakdown in thermal-coal spot prices indicates afurther strengthening of pessimism toward broad coal supply–demandconditions, triggering the second sharp correction in coking-coalfutures. Looking ahead, at current valuations, coal and coke may not offer clearshort-term one-way trading opportunities. Strategically, it isrecommended to buy dips in coking-margin or steel-mill-margin trades. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China will reduce its retail prices of gasoline and diesel on Tuesdayto reflect recent changes in international oil prices, the country's topeconomic planner said on Monday. Gasoline and diesel prices will both be reduced by 55 yuan (about 7.77U.S. dollars) per tonne, the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC) said. Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation--along with other oil refineries, have been instructedto efficiently organize the production and transportation of refined oilproducts to ensure a stable supply. Under China's current pricing mechanism, refined oil product prices areadjusted based on fluctuations in international crude oil prices. Relevant government departments across regions should strengthen marketsupervision and inspections. Meanwhile, they must take stringent measuresto crack down on activities that violate national pricing policies andsafeguard market order, the NDRC said.(Source: Xinhua) 2. China's new-energy passenger vehicle market continued to see stablegrowth in November, with retail sales reaching nearly 1.32 million units,industry association data showed on Monday. The figure marked a 4.2 percent year-on-year increase, according to theChina Passenger Car Association (CPCA). In November, production of new-energy passenger vehicles reached around1.76 million units, representing an increase of 18.3 percent year-on-year. The penetration rate of new-energy vehicles, a gauge of popularity, inthe domestic market climbed to 59.3 percent last month, up 7 percentagepoints year on year, according to the data. During the first 11 months of the year, total retail sales of new-energypassenger cars amounted to 11.47 million units, representing a 19.6percent increase from the previous year, the CPCA data showed. On the export front, China shipped about 284,000 new-energy passengervehicles last month, surging 243.3 percent year on year. From January to November, total