Morning Insight: December 12，2025

Morning Insight:December 12, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Silver:Yesterday, silver reached a new high again, with London silveraccelerating upward to 64.3 USD/oz, showing a clear bullish trend. Interms of drivers, the current spot-market imbalance in silver remainsunresolved, domestic inventories are at historical lows, and overseaslease rates have risen slightly. Both the Shanghai and London markets arefacing short-squeeze risks. Meanwhile, yesterday’s FOMC meeting did notpresent a higher dot plot, and the anticipated hawkish statement fromPowell did not appear,removing the market’s concerns before the pricerally and accelerating the upward move. Looking ahead, we believe thelogic for silver is relatively clear and remains strong, but technically,attention should be paid to the 65-dollar resistance level. Zinc:The domestic and overseas markets are moving in tandem, and zincprices are short-term strong. Last night, LME zinc saw a sharp rise, oncebreaking above 3,200 USD, which also pushed SHFE zinc strongly higher.Since the beginning of this year, London has shown a more unusual premiumstructure compared with previous years, with the LME 0–3 spread inOctober once surging to above 300 USD/ton, indicating a tight overseasspot supply. Afterwards, the LME 0–3 spread retreated from the high buthas remained around 150 USD/ton, showing that domestic exports have begunto alleviate overseas supply tightness and that the most severe phase haspassed. However, it should be noted that although the export window has openedtemporarily, domestic supply continues to flow overseas, but the deliveryvolume is relatively limited. The pace of LME inventory accumulation hasbeen slow, visible inventory remains at historically low levels, andstructural risks in overseas inventories still exist, which to someextent has suppressed short-selling sentiment. We believe that the supply tightness seen this year is more localizedrather than structural. Next year, zinc is still expected to be insurplus, but the domestic surplus on the physical side has already beenrealized this year, so overly bearish expectations should be revised. Inthe short term, bearish factors face more resistance. Coupled with theintensified supply-side disturbances during the TC Benchmark negotiationphase, prices have some upward elasticity. Pay attention to short-termtrading opportunities. LPG:With costs moving lower, weakening demand, and pressure fromwarehouse receipts resonating together, PG plunged sharply in the nightsession. As of last night’s close, the PG2601 contract was at 4,108yuan/ton, down 2.65% from the previous trading day’s close. First, crudeoil moved lower, weakening cost-side support; second, market newsindicated that multiple PDH units will undergo concentrated shutdowns andmaintenance in January–February, leading to expectations of weakeningchemical demand; third, PG added 880 new warehouse receipts, and thepressure from warehouse receipts dragged the futures downward.Going forward, we believe that the near-month PG contract may maintainlow-level consolidation in the short term under warehouse-receiptpressure. On one hand, the lowest deliverable product is currentlyShandong residential gas at 4,400 yuan/ton, with a basis of 292 yuan/ton,leaving limited room for further widening. On the other hand, influencedby tight Middle Eastern supply and peak burning season, FEI and CP papermarkets remain strong, and import-cost support is relatively firm. In addition, we recommend closely monitoring the actual realization ofnegative feedback from PDH unit operations. In the medium to long term, as incremental supply from the Middle Eastand the United States gradually materializes, the propane balance willfurther loosen in 2026, and downward pressure on market pricing is stillexpected. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's auto industry has sustained a sound growth momentum as autooutput and sales have both exceeded 31 million units in the first 11months of the year, official data showed Thursday. During the January-November period, China's auto production increased11.9 percent year on year to over 31.23 million units, while auto salesreached nearly 31.13 million units, representing a year-on-year increaseof 11.4 percent, according to data from the China Association ofAutomobile Manufacturers. In November alone, China's auto production and sales reached 3.532million units and 3.429 million units, respectively, maintaining a solidgrowth trend. During the January-November period, China's production and sales of newenergy vehicles (NEVs) hit 14.907 million units and 14.78 million units,respectively, surging 31.4 percent and 31.2 percent year on year, t