Morning Insight: December 11，2025

Morning Insight:December 11, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Pulp:Short-term bias remains firm, but the near-month fundamentals showlimited improvement, so a wait-and-see approach is recommended. Fromindustry news, unlike last week’s rebound in pulp futures, this round ofpulp price increases does not come with any new substantive bullishfundamental rumors. Judging from the rebound in the night session ofDecember 10, this round of rebound shows the characteristics ofsignificantlylarger position-building in the May contract (05) comparedwith the January contract (01), along with a 1–5 calendar spread reversearbitrage. We tend to believe that this rebound in the futures market maybe driven more by funds betting on potential future production cuts bypulp mills under low valuations, with value recovery as the main theme.Looking at subsequent fundamental changes, the customs data of exportingcountries imply a decline in arrivals, but the main issues on the supplyside still stem from high port inventories + excess liquidity ofbenchmark-grade products, with softwood pulp continuing to accumulateinventory. On the demand side, downstream paper prices have recentlyretreated, and demand is about to enter a transition phase from strong toweak, which will likewise suppress pulp consumption. From the marketperspective, the widening of the 1–5 spread has provided an opportunityfor taking delivery and registering warehouse receipts under the period–spot structure. Short-term, a wait-and-see stance is recommended, and onemay consider positioning near-month short positions on the right-handside. Alumina:The recent decline has been smooth, having consecutively brokenbelow the 2700 and 2600 round numbers, and is currently approaching 2500.During this round of long-term contract negotiation season, excessivelystrong production rigidity has pressured alumina (AO) prices. The marketis further focusing on future supply-side production cuts. The continuedweak drift in caustic soda futures prices and this week’s sharp declineon increased volume may also partially reflect expectations of thenegative impact of alumina production cuts on its demand side. Looking at the latest spot market, spot quotations have expanded theirdeclines and inventories continue to accumulate. As of the week ofDecember 5, alumina weekly output under the SMM (Mysteel) methodology hasrisen for four consecutive weeks. Currently,ore and caustic soda pricescontinue to fall, and hidden cost reductions for alumina enterprises arestill ongoing. Even though some companies experience cash-flow losses andhave engaged in certain production curtailments, large-scale productioncuts andmaintenance have not yet become significant. However, it isworth noting that alumina futures continue to accumulate short positions,which may be increasing disruptions from market-trading factors. Ofcourse, from a fundamental perspective, we still tendto believe that atrend reversal in the alumina market ultimately needs to rely onsignificant supply-side clearing and a rebalancing of supply and demand. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. The World Bank on Thursday released its latest China Economic Updatein Beijing, raising its 2025 economic growth forecast for the world'ssecond-largest economy by 0.4 percentage points. The World Bank said that accommodative fiscal and monetary policiessupported domestic consumption and investment. Simultaneously, demandfrom developing countries sustained exports. "China's growth in the coming years will depend more on domestic demand," said Mara Warwick, World Bank division director for China, Mongolia andKorea. "In addition to short-term fiscal stimulus, advancing structuralreforms of the social protection system and creating a more predictableenvironment for businesses can help boost confidence and lay thegroundwork for resilient, sustainable growth." (Source: Xinhua) 2. China will roll over 750 billion yuan (about 106 billion U.S. dollars)in special treasury bonds that will mature on Friday, the Ministry ofFinance said Wednesday. As the 750 billion yuan of treasury bonds issued in 2007 will mature onDec. 12, the ministry will issue an equivalent amount to designated bankson the interbank market. They include 400 billion yuan with a 10-yearterm and 350 billion yuan with a 15-year term, according to a statementon its website. The funds raised will be used to repay the maturing principal. Theministry emphasized that this rollover is an equal replacement that willnot increase the fiscal deficit. In 2007, the ministry issued 1.55 trillion yuan in special treasury bondsas a source of capital for China Investment Corporation. These bondsprimarily had terms of 1