Morning Insight: July 17, 2025

Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分Styrene:Benzene sees both supply and demand increase, while styreneexperiences rising supply and falling demand—profit margin compressionremains the dominant theme for now.Currently, styrene is in a state of high output, high profit, and highinventory, and the strategy remains weighted toward short positions. Portinventories of styrene are entering a phase of accelerated accumulation.Downstream operations for benzene are gradually recovering, and theindustry is progressively entering a restocking phase. Although July sawsignificant production losses due to maintenance, these were largelyoffset by increased imports. Meanwhile, overseas market prices aregradually rebounding, providing short-term support in the 5600–5700yuan/ton range.Key focus remains on positions aimed at compressing styrene profitmargins.Natural Rubber:Weather disruptions—consider light long positions onpullbacks.In the short term, natural rubber futures are expected to trade aroundweather developments and whether supply can effectively increase.Yesterday, raw latex prices in Thailand stabilized, and cup lump pricescontinued to rebound. The anticipated supply increase from Thailand hasyet to materialize, primarily due to rainfall disrupting tappingactivities. Additionally, last year’s high rubber prices led towidespread use of stimulants, which may reduce the overall yield thisyear.In China, Hainan has seen above-average rainfall recently, and sinceJune, Yunnan has also faced weather-related tapping disruptions. Overallrubber supply for the year may need to be reassessed. Low rubber pricesin Southeast Asia have dampened tapping motivation, while high returnsfrom alternative crops in Africa must also be considered.On the demand side, although semi-steel tire performance remains underpressure, the domestic "trade-in" policy supports demand for all-steel 2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分tires, and heavy truck sales in the second half of the year remainpromising. The impact of tariffs on Chinese tire exports has temporarilyeased.We recommend investors consider light long positions on dips, watchingthe 15,000 yuan/ton psychological resistance level closely.Cotton:Expectations of tight old-crop inventories and stronger riskappetite in external markets have pushed cotton futures to a new yearlyhigh.Since March, domestic commercial cotton inventories have declined morethan expected, driving up futures and spot prices as well as basislevels. The market is increasingly concerned about tight domestic supplyin August and September, leading to a stronger near-month performance incotton futures. Additionally, improving overall risk sentiment in thebroader commodity market and technical buying have further fueled therally.However, downstream textile mills are seeing shrinking production marginsand rising finished goods inventories, while expectations for a strongnew crop harvest may limit further price increases. In the short term,cotton futures are likely to remain technically strong, but attentionshould be paid to operating rates at spinning mills in Xinjiang and anychanges to import quota policies. Be cautious of potential pullbacksafter sharp rallies.Chart1：Market SnapshotSource：iFind,GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES ResearchCSI 300 Index Futures4009.6-0.29%SSE 50 Index Futures2740.2-0.24%CSI 500 Index Futures6008.20.04%CSI 1000 Index Futures6422.00.41%30Y T-bond Futures120.8-0.05%10Y T-bond Futures108.9-0.05%5Y T-bond Futures106.0-0.01%2Y T-bond Futures102.40.01%Market Snapshot 3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分Open InterestChart2:Open Interest of IFSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearchChart4:Open Interest of ICSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearchNews Highlights:1. Alashankou, also known as Alataw Pass, a primary land port innorthwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, had handled more than4,000 China-Europe (Central Asia) freight train trips this year as ofWednesday, according to China Railway Urumqi Group Co., Ltd.Notably, Xinjiang's railways have expanded border port capacity toenhance the China-Europe freight rail service in 2025. This supportsXinjiang's development as a major Eurasian logistics hub and gateway to020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000IF2507.CFEIF2509.CFE020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000IC2507.CFEIC2509.CFE Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearchChart 5:Open Interest of IMSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000IM2507.CFEIM2508.CFEIM2509.CFEIM2512.CFE IC2508.CFEIC2512.CFE 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分the west.Following the start of operations of the Jinghe-Alashankou double-tracking project last year, Xinjiang's railway sector has added a newcontainer line via Alashankou Station and upgraded two existing ones.These efforts have improved China-Europe freight train handlingefficiency by 30 percent. This station now handles over 21 China-Europefreight trains daily--peaking at 30.Currently, Alashankou Port of