Morning Insight: December 8, 2025

Morning Insight:December 8, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Offset printing paper:The trend is weak. After we suggested takingprofit on long positions in last week’s weekly report, prices fellsharply, and the market has now returned to a low-valuation range.Considering that current positions are still mainly held by marketmakers, we believe the sharp decline is still largely driven by capitalbehavior. From a fundamentals perspective, the bearish drivers mainlycome from the following three points: 1.) Zhanjiang Chenming may resumepart of its cultural-paper production capacity; 2.)Paper-mill quotationsare expected to remain flat in December, and after publishing-sectorofftake ends in January, mills may release capacity, leading to potentialspot-price weakness, which the futures market is pricing in ahead oftime; 3.)Falling pulpprices are dragging down paper prices. From the current standpoint, the rapid decline in prices provides a cost-effective opportunity for long positions. However, in the short term,with increased supply pressure from Chenming’s production resumption anddemand likely to weaken afterward, the lack of bullish drivers cannot beignored. Prices may remain weak, and the market should wait foropportunities for two-way trading. Stock Index futures:The short-term rebound continues, but the truebreakout depends on policy signals. Recently, the market has beengenerally choppy, and there have been no significant upside or downsidesurprises from fundamental drivers. As a result, year-end capital-flow dynamics are exerting greater influence on the market, including fundprofit-locking and accounting-year settlement, which create some drag.In the short term, the regulator’s weekend move to lower risk-weightfactors for insurance-company businesses, along with remarks aboutmoderately expanding brokers’capital capacity and leverage limits, issupportive for financial-sector speculation (which also explains lastFriday’s afternoon surge in non-bank financials that drove A-shareshigher). Looking ahead, the key focus will be rising expectations for a springrally as the market moves into the year-crossing period. The scale ofthat rally will depend on whether clearer economic-policy catalystsemerge. As usual, this week enters the time window for the Politburomeeting, followed by the Central Economic Work Conference. The marketholds some expectations for a strong policy kickoff for the“15th Five-Year Plan.” Overseas, the Federal Reserve will hold its rate meeting early Thursdaymorning. Whether it cuts rates and the hawkish/dovish tone of the Chair’scomments—together with domestic drivers—will determine the direction andmagnitude of future market moves. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's foreign currency reserves totaled 3.3464 trillion U.S. dollarsat the end of November 2025, up by 3 billion U.S. dollars or 0.09percent, compared to the end of October, official data showed Sunday.The State Administration of Foreign Exchange attributed this increase tothe combined impact of currency translation and changes in asset prices.Influenced by factors such as macroeconomic data and monetary policyexpectations of major economies, the U.S. dollar index declined inNovember, while global financial asset prices experienced mixed movements, the administration noted. Supported by a steady economy, China remains well-positioned to maintainthe overall stability of its foreign currency reserves, theadministration said. (Source: Xinhua) 2. The China Securities Regulatory Commission on Friday released a draftregulation on the supervision and administration of listed companies,with the intention of soliciting opinions from the public.The release of the draft paves the way for China's first dedicatedadministrative regulation on the supervision of listed companies.Aimed at preventing risks, strengthening supervision and promoting thehigh-quality development of listed firms, the draft focuses onconsolidating the foundations for regulatory enforcement and investorprotection, and on improving the quality of listed companies.By regulating the practices of listed firms and related parties inaccordance with the law, the regulation is expected to provide furthersupport for the high-quality development of China's capital market.Consisting of 74 articles, the draft regulation sets out measures toimprove corporate governance requirements and enhance informationdisclosure oversight. It calls for intensified efforts to prevent andcrack down on financial fraud in disclosures.The draft also outlines moves to regulate mergers and acquisitions,enhance investor protection, and impose tougher penalties on illegal orirregular practices. (Source: Xi