Morning Insight: April 17, 2026

Morning Insight:April 17, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Lithium Carbonate:Supply-side disruptions drive strength; bullish biaswith elevated volatility Lithium carbonate futures surged sharply yesterday, with increased longpositioning, as the front-month contract closed at RMB 176,000/tonne, up4.2%. The rally was primarily driven by market concerns over potentialdisruptions to Australian lithium ore supplyבעקבותdiesel supply issues,alongside a broader rebound in secondary equity markets that attractedsignificant capital inflows into long positions. From a supply-demand perspective, as the market moves into late April,trading focus is gradually shifting toward May fundamentals. With newcapacity ramp-ups in lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode materials andthe accumulation of tightness at the upstream mining segment, the marketis expected to enter a destocking phase in May, reinforcing the pricefloor. Looking ahead, key supply-side uncertainties include whether miningoperations in Jiangxi will resume and the pace of overseas lithium saltshipments. In the short term, bullish expectations are relativelyaligned, with attention turning to the upside potentialin prices.However, with volatility increasing, cautious positioning is advised. Caustic Soda:Lack of upward catalysts; high supply and inventory remainthe core constraints Previously, the market was focused on delivery pressure, with the May (05) contract declining continuously as participants priced in discounteddelivery against the benchmark procurement price of Weiqiao, leading to astrengthening basis. As the main contract rolls to July (07), the keymarket focus has shifted away from delivery dynamics toward thestructural issue of high production and elevated inventories in thecaustic soda market. From a supply perspective, operating rates at sample enterprises withcapacity above 100kt remain elevated at 85.1%, still higher year-on-year.The main driver behind sustained high operating rates is solid industryprofitability, largely supported by firm liquid chlorine prices. Strengthin liquid chlorine is linked to relatively high operating rates incarbide-based PVC and strong profitability among propylene oxideproducers. Meanwhile, production cuts in ethylene-based PVC have nottranslated into significant merchant chlorine supply due to regionalconstraints and transportation limitations. Against this backdrop, liquidchlorine prices inShandong remain around RMB 450/tonne, sustaining the“chlorine subsidizing caustic soda”dynamic across the chlor-alkalivalue chain. To resolve the current imbalance, either supply must decline or demandmust expand. However, under the current environment of strong chlorineprices, maintenance activity may fall short of expectations, leavingseasonal turnarounds as the primary mechanismto alleviate supplypressure. On the demand side, export orders that supported the market inearly March have not shown meaningful expansion recently. Although FOBprices remain elevated at USD 420–450/dmt, chlor-alkali producers inJapan and South Korea have not implemented further production cuts,allowing long-term contract volumes to be fulfilled. At the same time,spot cargoes are being sold at lower prices to downstream buyers andtraders in Southeast Asia, undermining market purchasing confidence.Overall, there is currently no clear upward catalyst for caustic soda.Going forward, attention should focus on movements in liquid chlorineprices and energy arbitrage dynamics. A meaningful rebound would likely require either a sharp decline in chlorine prices or a recovery in exportdemand. Container Freight Index (Europe Route):Spot rates stabilizing; tradingrate hike expectations; range-bound outlook The market rebounded yesterday primarily on position reduction, with thenear-month May (05) contract closing at 1,753 points, up 1.7%, and themain June (06) contract closing at 2,044 points, up 4.7%. As spot freightrates stabilize into late April and early May, shipping lines’plannedrate hikes for May are increasingly tied to geopolitical developments,injecting premium expectations into the futures curve. From a supply-demand perspective, export demand in May is typicallyexpected to improve modestly month-on-month versus April, while shippingcapacity is likely to remain broadly flat. On a monthly basis, theprobability of marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics in May isrelatively high. In terms of valuation, under a neutral assumption, the market is pricingin one round of rate hike implementation on top of current spot levels,with an expected magnitude of USD 200–400/FEU. This corresponds to avaluation range of approximately 1,700–1,900 points, suggesting that theMay (2605) contract should be approached with a range-trading strategy.For deferred contracts, the market is currently focused on relativevaluation versus the same