Morning Insight：April 20，2026

Morning Insight:April 20, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Methanol:Geopolitical tug-of-war sustains supply tightness; firm in theshort term, rangebound at high levels in the medium termIn the near term, the geopolitical situation between the US and Iranremains in a state of repeated tug-of-war over transit through the Straitof Hormuz. Methanol supply from the Middle East continues to contractsignificantly, supporting a firm bias in domestic prices in the shortterm, with expectations of high-level consolidation in the medium term.From a fundamentals perspective, the domestic methanol market reflects astructure of near-term neutral-to-tight spot conditions alongside weakerforward expectations. Reduced import flows from Iran are progressivelybeing realized, with port inventories continuing to draw down.Overall, methanol remains driven by geopolitically induced supplycontraction, and port inventories are expected to continue decliningthrough April. Intraday, price volatility is likely to be elevated due toshifts in geopoliticaldevelopments, with trading dynamics closelyfollowing news flow. Investors are advised to maintain disciplined riskmanagement. Urea:Market focus shifts to export expectations; speculative tradinglikely to dominate In the near term, the key market driver in futures is gradually shiftingfrom domestic agricultural demand toward expectationsסביבfuture exportpolicy and the associated expectation gaps. On the demand side, domestic agricultural demand in April continues to provide underlying support tofundamentals. However, as the market approaches May, overall agriculturaldemand in northern regions is expected to gradually weaken. On the export side, policy adjustments around the Labour Day period in2025 have created a degree of path dependency in market expectations,leading to renewed speculation over potential export policy changes. Thatsaid, based on current information, no such policy adjustments have beenannounced. The market is therefore entering a phase of dynamicmonitoring, where trading is likely to revolve around shiftingexpectations and expectation gaps regarding exports, with a strongerspeculative component. From a valuation perspective, for the September (09) contract,considering spot policy price caps and warehouse warrant registrationcosts, the upside resistance is expected around RMB 1,960–1,970/tonne. Onthe downside, supported by domestic agricultural demand and export-related speculation, support levels are estimated around RMB 1,850–1,860/tonne. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's National Development and Reform Commission has released thesecond batch of major project lists for 2026 under the country'sinitiative for implementing major national strategies and buildingsecurity capacity in key areas. It also allocated 216.8 billion yuan (about 31.8 billion U.S. dollars) ofultra-long special treasury bonds to support 336 key projects, accordingto the commission's announcement on Sunday. The projects span key areas including artificial intelligence, urbanunderground pipeline renovation, transport infrastructure along theYangtze River Economic Belt, high-standard farmland, and higher educationupgrading, the commission said. Combined with the first batch of 389.7 billion yuan previously allocated,the total funding for supporting projects for implementing major nationalstrategies and building security capacity in key areas has reached 606.5billion yuan, accounting for 76 percent of the full-year earmarked amountof 800 billion yuan. An official from the commission said that further efforts will be made toimprove investment and financing mechanisms, accelerate theimplementation of "soft infrastructure" measures, and strengthensupervision of central investment funds. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China's corporate credit performance has sustained a solid and soundtrend as an index measuring corporate credit has stayed within ahistorically high range, according to data released by the StateAdministration for Market Regulation. The China Enterprise Credit Index, issued by the administration, stood at162.05 in the first quarter of 2026, edging down 0.13 points from thefourth quarter of 2025, yet rising 0.39 points from the third quarter oflast year, latest data has shown. Overall corporate credit has remained within a historically high range,the administration said, noting that the reading hit 162.26 in March2026, climbing 0.17 points month on month. The proportion of enterprises with low credit risks further expanded amidheightened regulatory efforts, the administration revealed. China will establish an institutional framework for the comprehensiveevaluation of corporate credit status, w