Morning Insight:April 21,2026

Morning Insight:April 21, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Naphtha:Near-term Asian naphtha prices correct sharply as petrochemicalspreads rapidly recover From the supply side, Middle Eastern availability remains at relativelylow levels. Out of a typical monthly export volume exceeding 4 milliontons, current export capacity has fallen to around 0.5 million tons.However, non-Middle East supply has increased significantly, witharbitrage-driven cargo flows from the Mediterranean, Europe, and NorthAmerica rising by approximately 0.8–1.0 million tons per month.On the demand side, Asia’s ethylene sector is experiencing widespreadshutdowns and turnarounds, with more than 16 million tons of incrementaloperating capacity offline. This has largely offset the supply-sidereduction, leading to a simultaneous contraction in both supply anddemand. Overall, the naphtha market remains in a dual contraction (supply-demandreduction) equilibrium. From a static balance perspective, naphtha shouldcontinue to reflect weak pricing consistent with ethylene operatinglosses. However, in the near term, with ethylene already operating atelevated valuations, the arrival of arbitrage cargoes from Westernregions in April to early May may exert downward pressure on naphtha andpotentially support partial ethylene restarts. In this context, ethylene remains relatively expensive, while naphthamaintains a strong downside support level driven by its cost linkage andsubstitution dynamics. Polysilicon:Renewed“anti-involution”sentiment; focus on spottransactions Polysilicon futures surged again yesterday, with multiple contractshitting the daily limit up. The main contract closed at 42,955 yuan/ton,up 9% on the day. The rally was primarily driven by capital trading onrenewed expectations of“anti-involution”policy actions in thephotovoltaic sector. On the news side, according to Caixin, on April 17, several authoritiesincluding the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, theNational Development and Reform Commission, the State Administration forMarket Regulation, and the National Energy Administration jointly held asymposium on the photovoltaic industry, focusing on regulatingcompetition and improving industry order, with participationfromindustry associations and downstream PV companies. From a fundamentals perspective, however, the supply-demand structureremains relatively weak. While some upstream producers are reducingoutput, others are planning restarts. Downstream demand has not shown ameaningful recovery, and spot prices remain broadly stable, lacking clearupward momentum. In the short term, market positioning is not driven primarily byfundamentals, but rather by sentiment trading around“anti-involution”narratives similar to last year’s rally. This has led to significantlyhigher volatility. Investors are advised to maintain caution inpositioning. Going forward, attention should be paid to upstreamproducers’pricing behavior and actual spot transaction activity forconfirmation of any fundamental shift. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. Carbon emissions allowances closed at 38.50 yuan (5.61 U.S. dollars)per tonne on Monday, remained unchanged from last transaction day atGuangzhou Emissions Exchange. A total of 100 tonnes of allowances were transacted on Monday with aturnover of 3,850 yuan. The allowances, officially known as Guangdong Emissions Allowances(GDEA), are carbon dioxide emissions caps assigned to companies. Firmswhose emissions surpass their share must buy extra quotas fromauthorities or purchase unused quotas on the market from those that causeless pollution. Since its opening in December 2013, the market has traded over 233.51million tonnes of GDEA, with a total turnover of nearly 6.8 billion yuan.(Source: Xinhua) 2. China's grain production is expected to maintain steady growth in2026, with the country's capacity to ensure stable production and supplyof grain and other important agricultural products set to furtherstrengthen, according to a report released by the Ministry of Agricultureand Rural Affairs on Monday. The report on China's agricultural outlook from 2026 to 2035 saidstronger enthusiasm among farmers and local governments for grainproduction, along with the wider adoption of better farmland, seeds,machinery and farming methods, will support the trend. Grain yield is expected to rise to 400 kilograms per mu (about 0.067hectares) in 2026, lifting total grain output to 716 million tonnes, up0.2 percent from the previous year, according to the report. Oilseed output is projected to reach 42.04 milliontonnes this year, up2.6 percent year on year, according to the report. The report forecast that China's consum