Morning Insight: April 1, 2026

Morning Insight:April 1, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity Market Insight： CokingCoal & Coke: Hold Short OTM Call Options on May Contract UntilExpiry; Focus on Valuation Recovery for September Contract After DeliveryDynamics Subside The recent pullback in the market can be attributed to the followingfactors: First, the April contract has entered the delivery month, withthe April-May spread narrowing to-134 in relative price terms. Thiscreates profit opportunities by buying April and selling May, leading themarket to price the May contract against the April contract. Second,warehouse receipt disruptions remain unresolved, with survey feedbackindicating that a considerable volume of goods is still being registeredfor delivery, resulting in a concentrated short squeeze on the long sidein the futures market. For subsequent strategy, short out-of-the-money call options can be helduntil expiry. However, as the current rollover period concludes, andgiven the current fundamentals ofcoking coal and coke, greater attentionshould be paid to the valuation recovery opportunity for the Septembercontract. On one hand, the current fundamentals forcoking coal and cokeare not weak. Although steel mill profits have been squeezed by risingraw material prices—rebar has already entered loss-making territory—expectationsfor subsequent molten iron production recovery still exist.Negative feedback loops are unlikely to develop without a clear slowdownin inventory accumulation. On the other hand, geopolitical uncertaintiespersist. As the conflict prolongs, many market concerns that were previously driven by sentiment are gradually becoming reality, such asdiesel shortages affecting mining operations. Against the backdrop of persistent market sentiment and relativelyhealthy industry fundamentals, after the current delivery-driven tradingdynamics play out, attention should turn to the valuation recoverypotential for the far-month September contract. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1.Carbon emissions allowances closed at 39.43 yuan (about 5.7 U.S.dollars) per tonne on Tuesday, remained unchanged from last transactionday at Guangzhou Emissions Exchange. A total of 14 tonnes of allowances were transacted on Tuesday with aturnover of 537.01 yuan. The allowances, officially known as Guangdong Emissions Allowances(GDEA), are carbon dioxide emissions caps assigned to companies. Firmswhose emissions surpass their share must buy extra quotas fromauthorities or purchase unused quotas on the market from those that causeless pollution. Since its opening in December 2013, the market has traded 233.509 milliontonnes of GDEA, with a total turnover of 6.798 billion yuan. (Source:Xinhua) 2.China's state-owned and state-controlled enterprises (SOEs) saw theirtotal revenue rise 0.2 percent year on year to 12.57 trillion yuan (about1.8 trillion U.S. dollars) in the first two months of 2026, data from theMinistry of Finance showed Tuesday. During the period, the total profits of SOEs fell 2 percent from a yearearlier to 626.62 billion yuan, while their total tax payments stood at 1.09 trillion yuan, down 2.3 percent. The asset-liability ratio of SOEs came in at 65.4 percent at the end ofFebruary, up from 65.1 percent at the end of December in 2025.(Source:Xinhua) 3.China has set a target for its core Internet of Things (IoT) industryto exceed 3.5 trillion yuan (about 505.8 billion U.S. dollars) by 2028,according to an action plan jointly issued by the Ministry of Industryand Information Technology and other departments. The plan states that by 2028, China aims to formulate or revise more than50 advanced and applicable standards and increase the number of IoTterminal connections to 10 billion. The IoT enables ubiquitous intelligent connections among humans, machinesand objects through sensing technologies and communication networks,bridging the digital and physical worlds. To foster innovation and development in the IoT sector, the action planoutlines five major measures including promoting the innovation andupgrade of IoT devices, enhancing the service efficacy of IoT platforms,cultivating IoT application scenarios, strengthening the IoT networkfoundation, and fostering a sound ecosystem for IoT industry growth.By 2028, new IoT technologies, products and business models are expectedto continue emerging, with improved innovation capabilities across theindustry, according to the plan. Breakthroughs will be made in keytechnologies such as sensing, networking andcommunication, dataprocessing, and security, which will significantly raise the intelligencelevel of terminals and platforms.(Source: Xinhua) Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Comp