Morning Insight: January 23, 2026

Morning Insight:January 23, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Synthetic rubber:In the short term, prices are largely determined bycapital flows. Against a macro narrative of incremental funds increasingallocations to the chemicals sector, butadiene and BR rubber are showingrelatively strong short-term performance. This is mainly driven by twofactors: first, amid substitution demand within the rubber complex, spottrading across the synthetic rubber value chain has remained broadlyneutral, sustaining relatively high apparent demand for synthetic rubber;second, butadiene’s relatively strong short-term fundamentals havecreated a cost-push effect for synthetic rubber. On the feedstock sidefor BR rubber, butadiene is currently characterized by both strong spotfundamentals and strong expectations. On the supply side, China’sethylene cracking operating rates remain high, and domestic butadieneoutput is at a relatively high year-on-year level in recent years;however, profitability pressure on ethylene units has constrainedoperating rates across Asia, tightening supply, while risinginternational butadiene prices have driven Chinese butadiene priceshigher. On the demand side, high production margins in synthetic rubberhave kept butadiene demand elevated, while demand from ABS and SBSremains stable. Overall, butadiene’s short-term fundamentals are neutralto slightly bullish, providing support to spot prices, while BR rubbermaintains high apparent demand with no major fundamental imbalances fornow, and price movements mainly follow changes in feedstock costs. Soybean oil:Oil–meal spread trading and allocation demand have driven acontinued rebound in soybean oil futures. Expectations of a bumperBrazilian soybean crop, sluggish U.S. soybean exports, and ample domesticsoybean supply have weighed on soybean meal prices, while tight globalsunflower oil supply, the entry of major palm oil producers into theirtraditional seasonal production cuts and inventory drawdown cycle, andexpectations that U.S. biodiesel policies will be finalized have providedstrong support to vegetable oil prices. Under the combined influence ofthese factors, buy-oil/sell-meal arbitrage has helped fuel the rebound insoybean oil futures. At the same time, supported by seasonal factors andexpectations for biodiesel demand, vegetable oils have become a preferredlong allocation, further boosting soybean oil futures. In the short term,the main potential downside risk for soybean oil futures lies in thepressure from Brazilian soybean arrivals, but this pressure is expectedto be largely absorbed by soybean meal, limiting the impact on soybeanoil. Therefore, before U.S. biodiesel policy expectations aredisappointed again or large volumes of new-crop Brazilian soybeansarrive, soybean oil futures are likely to remain well supported, with theoverall trend expected to be range-bound to slightly bullish. PX:The outright trend remains bullish. In the commodities market,especially in the chemical sector that had seen relatively smaller gainsearlier, capital has been increasing allocations. PX, which has arelatively sound medium-term supply–demand outlook, has attracted fundattention and, after a brief pullback, prices rose by more than 2% fortwo consecutive trading days. As a result, bearish single-leg PX spreadtrades based on fundamentals, as well as short PTA processing marginpositions, have become ineffective. The near-term trend remains strong,and short positions are not recommended. As funds position into the Maycontract, attention should be paid to the 3–5 reverse spread and the 5–9forward spread. From a fundamental perspective, PX supply–demand isexpected to gradually weaken going forward. PX margins remain acceptable, plants are largely running at high utilization, hedging positions atdomestic PX producers have increased, and operating rates of domesticunits have risen to 89.6% (+1.3%), with only Sinopec Quanzhou currentlyunder maintenance. Overseas, improved toluenedisproportionation marginshave lifted toluene demand, while Thailand’s PTTGC 540 kt and SouthKorea’s GS 550 kt PX units are scheduled to restart, and Kuwait’s 820 ktunit is under maintenance. PX imports in December are expected to exceed950 kt. Overall, PX supply is relatively ample. Downstream, PTA operatingrates are around 76.9%, with Yisheng New Materials’3.6 mtpa PTA unitunder maintenance, and PX supply is gradually loosening. PTA processingmargins have risen above 500 yuan/ton, favoring long PX and short PTAstrategies. PTA:The outright trend is also bullish. Under macro policies aimed atcombating deflation and excessive competition, capital continues toallocate toward commodities, particularly the chemical sector thatpreviously lagged. PTA is moving into a phase of both weaker supply anddemand, resulting in inventory accumulation. On the supply side, PTAoperating rates