Morning Insight: April 3, 2026

Morning Insight:April 3, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity Market Insight： Chemicals:Elevated near-term volatility; reduced sensitivity to crude;demand-side constraints dominate transmission The chemicals complex is currently characterized by heightened near-termvolatility, with reduced sensitivity to crude oil price movements. Webelieve that Asian refinery operating rates are likely to remain stablein April, implying limited additional supply-side reductions driven bymargin pressure at the upstream level. As a result, the transmission ofelevated feedstock costs—whether crude, naphtha, or ethylene—is unlikelyto be reinforced by further supply-side negative feedback under a broadlystablesupply backdrop. On the demand side, negative feedback continues to dominate. Ahead of theQingming Festival, restocking willingness across the production chainremains weak, and downstream price pass-through is constrained. Overall,the sector is experiencing a simultaneous contraction in both supply anddemand. By segment: Olefins: Significant production cuts persist; however, increased merchantethylene availability has led to a tangible oversupply in the domesticcirculation market. With downstream derivatives facing difficulty inabsorbing costs, ethylene prices appear tohave peaked in the short term,and upstream valuation cannot be linearly transmitted to downstreamproducts. Aromatics: Focus remains on refined product performance in Asia during April. Substantial run cuts at Asian refineries have shifted crude supplytightness into the refined products market. In particular, gasolinedynamics in Asia may become a key driver for aromatics, with attention onchanges in aromatics yield across regional refineries. In summary, chemical products are trading at neutral-to-low valuationsrelative to feedstock costs, but price transmission to downstream remainsweak. With a significant portion of supply-side reductions alreadyrealized, further bullish support from supply is limited. Going forward,the key variable will be demand acceptance, as downstream recovery isneeded to unlock further upside. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's central bank announced Thursday that it has added 12 banks toits list of authorized institutions for digital yuan operations. The move aims to promote the steady development of the digital currency,improve the inclusiveness of its services, and meet public demand forsecure, convenient and efficient digital yuan services, according to thePeople's Bank of China. The newly added operators, including China CITIC Bank, China EverbrightBank and Huaxia Bank, will be linked to the central bank's digital yuansystem. They will begin offering digital yuan services after completingoperational and technical preparations. The central bank said it will continue to expand the number of operatorsin order to encourage broader market participation and supportinnovation. Prior to this expansion, there were 10 authorized operators for thedigital yuan, including six state-owned commercial banks, two joint-stockcommercial banks and two internet banks. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China will establish an institutional framework for the comprehensiveevaluation of corporate credit status, according to a document recently released by the General Office of the State Council. The framework will strengthen the fundamental role of public creditevaluation while promoting its integration with market assessment,thereby facilitating financing for micro, small and medium-sizedenterprises, it said. Unified rules will be established for public credit evaluation, togetherwith standardized channels for publishing evaluation results. Thedocument also called for stronger coordination mechanisms and improvedmanagement of credit evaluations across industries. The document urged local authorities and relevant departments to enhancedata sharing, streamline evaluation procedures and create a level playingfield for market competition, so as to help build a unified nationalmarket. (Source: Xinhua) 3. The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan,strengthened 145 pips to 6.8880 against the U.S. dollar Thursday,according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. (Source: Xinhua) Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or oth