Morning Insight: March 6，2026

Morning Insight:March 6, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Container Freight Index (Europe route):In the short term, the futuresmarket has been significantly disturbed by geopolitical sentiment. Thenear-month contract 2604 is currently trading roughly at parity with theexpected spot freight rate around 1800 points following the anticipatedrate hikein the third week of March. COSCO and its subsidiary OOCL haveredeployed the vessel CSCL ATLANTIC OCEAN (18,982 TEU) from the MiddleEast MEX route to the Northwest Europe AEU3/LL2 route, with the estimateddeparture from Shanghai scheduled for the fourth week of March (week 13).At the same time, the AEU7 route will skip the Shanghai port call in week13 and only call at Xiamen and Yantian. As a result, the increase inoverall market capacity in the second half of March has become moreevident, and the PA Alliance faces relatively greater capacity pressurein the third week. Attention should be paid to whether the pace of workresumption and production recovery in the second half of March cansupport the implementation of rate hikes by all carriers, particularlyfor the PA Alliance, which faces relatively heavier loading pressure.Average weekly capacity in April is expected to reach 326,000 TEU,representing a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. It is worth monitoringwhether geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could lead to localizedcontainer shortages, port congestion, or vesselschedule delays. Afterthe sharp decline yesterday, part of the geopolitical risk premium hasbeen unwound, but the valuation of all contracts remains at parity withor at a premium to the same period in 2025. Objectively speaking, the probability of the Red Sea route resuming before July has droppedsignificantly. Going forward, attention should be paid to capital flowsdriven by geopolitical sentiment, and caution is warranted regardingrepeated sentiment swings. The market is expectedto maintain wide-rangevolatility. Caustic soda:In the short term, the futures market has been influencedby optimistic export expectations. As geopolitical conflict in the MiddleEast intensified, sentiment in global energy and chemical markets roserapidly, driving a sharp rally in caustic soda prices. Market concernsare mainly concentrated in three areas. First, the impact on ethylenesupply has already been transmitted to some regions. For example, PVCplants in places such as South Korea have reduced operating rates, which,through the chlor-alkali balance mechanism, has led to passive reductionsin caustic soda production. Second, as the Middle East is a net exporterof caustic soda, disruptions in the fulfillment of long-term supplycontracts have prompted part of the overseas demand to shift towardChina, supporting a recent recovery in China’s caustic soda exports.Third, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in an interview withRussian media on March 4 local time that Russia may in the futureproactively“cut off gas”supplies to Europe, halting deliveries to theEuropean market and redirecting them to emerging markets. Uncertainty inEuropean natural gas supply could lead to significant volatility in localelectricity prices, which in turn may drive an expansion of China’scaustic soda exports—essentially an extension of the energy arbitragelogic. However, it should be noted that domestic supply–demand imbalancesremain. The structural issues of high production, high inventories, andnegative feedback from the key downstream sector of aluminahave not yetshown meaningful improvement. Going forward, continued monitoring ofoverseas plant operations and China’s export order bookings will benecessary. PX:Geopolitical conflict has pushed up costs. As oil prices have notshown further significant upside, long positions around the 8,200–8,300range can be partially reduced, and the May–September spread can also betrimmed on strength. In the medium term, the overall trend remainsrelatively strong, but volatility is increasing, so position control isimportant. Procurement of naphtha and crude oil has become moredifficult, while severaldomestic PX units are undergoing maintenance ordefensive run-rate cuts.The reforming unit at Zhejiang Petrochemical isunder maintenance, and PX operating rates have fallen to around 70%. Thisweek, the operating rate of domestic PX units has declined to around 90%,down about 2% year-on-year. In South Korea, the 550,000-ton unit at GSand the 770,000-ton unit at S-Oil are undergoing scheduled maintenance.The reduction in both imported and domestically produced PX is expectedto gradually materialize in the second quarter. In contrast, PTAoperating rates have rebounded to 81%. If the Iran issue persists formore than two weeks, higher oil prices and PX valuations could pushprices further upward. The strategy of long PX and short PTA can continueto be held. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNA