Morning Insight: March 11, 2026

Morning Insight:March 11, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Platinum and palladium:The complexity of great-power competition and thescramble for mineral resources has intensified further. The suddenescalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has directlytriggered a surge in global risk-aversion sentiment. Traditionally, suchevents are supportive for the precious metals sector. We believe goldwill receive medium-term support from the demand to hedge againstuncertainty, pushing its price center higher. In the short term, however,geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat,while both oil prices and theU.S. dollar have retreated, which is supportive for precious metals. Thekey variable remains whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuzresumes smoothly, as this will influence the sustainability of oil pricemovements andin turn affect inflation expectations and the outlook forFederal Reserve rate cuts. At present, we do not believe the risk of arenewed liquidity crisis triggered by geopolitics has been completelyeliminated, and therefore expect the sector to move in avaluation-repairpattern with volatility over the coming days. From the perspective of high-frequency data, platinum shows some internalcontradictions while palladium appears broadly bearish. Specifically,continued inventory drawdowns in the U.S. platinum market support non-U.S. liquidity, but the annualized premiumfor longer-dated contracts inthe U.S. market has increased further, and the forward structure in theLondon market has risen rapidly. In contrast, palladium’s forward ratesin the London market surged before quickly retreating, while inventories in the U.S. market have declined. One of the most important high-frequency indicators is that ETF holdings continue to see outflows.However, the current scale of ETF outflows is not yet sufficient tosignal a trend reversal. Therefore, platinum and palladium are expectedto enter a period of range-bound movement on weekly and monthly horizons.The bullish narrative for platinum and palladium is no longer as strongas it was from December 2025 to January 2026, and the highs reachedearlier in the year may be difficult to surpass again. We also tend tobelieve that palladium will remain relativelyweak, implying a continuedwidening of the platinum-to-palladium price ratio. For platinum on astandalone basis, close attention should be paid to the USD 2,400–2,500per ounce range; if prices can hold firmly above USD 2,400 per ounce,further upward momentum may emerge. At present, however, there is noclear driver for a directional strategy, and we recommend focusing moreon arbitrage opportunities and platinum–palladium ratio strategies. Live hogs:The valuation framework is being reset, and the cycle isentering a bottom-finding phase. Since the fourth quarter of 2025, therehas been a growing market narrative that the hog cycle is approaching areversal. The main reason behind this view is that hogfutures appearundervalued, leading many investors to believe the market offers bottom-fishing opportunities. Hog futures were first listed in 2021, at thebeginning of the post–African swine fever cycle, when the industrystructure began shifting rapidlytoward large-scale production. Duringthis period, production costs declined significantly from previous highs,and by 2025 the feeding costs of leading producers had nearly returned topre–African swine fever levels. However, many market participants continue to value the hog sector basedon entrenched perceptions formed during the African swine fever cycle.Investors often anchor their expectations to traditional price patternsand the historical hog–grain price ratio when attempting to buy thebottom. This approach overlooks the fact that the industry has now become increasingly large-scale, segmented, and specialized. As a result, thecost center and cash-flow structure have continued to improve. Thecyclical bottom for profit valuation may therefore fall below the levelsseen before African swine fever, implying that the existing valuationframework needs to be reset. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has issued 3 billionyuan (about 434.9 million U.S. dollars) worth of panda bonds, with boththe order volume and the number of investors hitting record highs, thebank said on Tuesday. The three-year bonds carry a coupon rate of 1.7 percent. A total of 34investors participated in the offering, placing orders worth 9 billionyuan. Strong demand from investors prompted the bank to raise theissuance size from the initially planned 2 billion yuan to 3 billionyuan, the bank said. Overseas investors accounted for 58 percent of the allocation