Morning Insight: February 9, 2026

Morning Insight:February 9,2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Copper:Near-term fundamentals remain weak while the long-term outlook isconstructive, warranting cautious trading. U.S. nonfarm payrolls exceededexpectations, signaling a resilient labor market, and stubborn coreinflation has reduced expectations for aggressive near-term rate cuts bythe Federal Reserve, pushing the U.S. dollar index higher and Treasuryyields up. Meanwhile, although U.S. AI-related infrastructure investmentcontinues to expand, the peak in profitability has yet to materialize,and strategic reports highlighting external dependence risks in criticalminerals and supply chains have heightened concerns over long-termeconomic resilience and industrial security. The market has thereforeentered a wait-and-see mode, awaiting further data guidance whileremaining alert to potential geopolitical disruptions to supply chains.Fundamentally, copper inventories continue to build, and the narrowingCOMEX–LME price spread indicates that inventory support for prices hasweakened noticeably; however, copper concentrate spot treatment charges(TCs) remain under pressure, and long-term mine-side disruptions continueto intensify. Upgrades in AI data center capacity, rapid growth in newenergy sectors, and stronger policy support in developing regions such asSoutheast and South Asia are expected to provide sustained support tocopper demand, forming the foundation for a stronger long-term priceoutlook. From a trading perspective, while near-term fundamentals aresoft, the long-term fundamentals remain healthy, and recent pricepullbacks have begun to attract downstream buying interest, suggesting downside support remains in place; the strategy of buying on dips remainsvalid for now, though elevated volatility argues for the use of optionsto hedge risk. Caustic Soda:Rising costs and low valuation. Previously, the core logicbehind shorting caustic soda margins was the strength of liquid chlorine,which lowered caustic soda costs; as long as prices had not fallen tocash-cost levels, producers were unwilling to cut output, allowing thepattern of high production and high inventories to persist. This logic isnow being challenged, mainly because the short-term strength of liquidchlorine is unlikely to be sustained after April, when export front-loading driven by tax rebate changes comes to an end, and becauseshipping schedules suggest that some chlorine-consuming downstreamindustries may see weaker export orders as early as March. Over the pastweekend, liquid chlorine prices in Shandong fell by 200 yuan per tonne,significantly pushing up caustic soda costs. From a fundamentalsperspective, on the demand side, the oversupply situation in alumina hasnot changed in the short term, and production cut expectations continueto suppress stockpiling demand for caustic soda,although large-scalecapacity additions later on may bring incremental demand. Non-aluminumdownstream sectors are facing seasonal declines in rigid demand, weakerexport stockpiling, and overall soft demand. On the supply side, spotprices in Shandong arealready close to cash-cost levels, andexpectations for production cuts and operating rate reductions afterMarch are strengthening. Overall, the weak spot market for caustic sodais unlikely to reverse before the Spring Festival, but continued declinesin liquid chlorine prices could subsequently lead to rising costs andlarge-scale supply cuts for caustic soda; therefore, it is recommended totake profits on short positions in the 03 contract before the holiday andconsider gradually building long positions in the 05 contract at lowlevels. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's foreign exchange reserves totaled 3.3991 trillion U.S. dollarsat the end of January 2026, marking an increase of 41.2 billion dollars,or 1.23 percent, from the end of December last year, official data showedon Saturday. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange noted that the U.S. dollarindex declined in January, while prices of major global financial assetsrose overall, influenced by fiscal and monetary policies as well asmarket expectations in major economies. The combined effects of exchange rate conversion and changes in assetprices contributed to the increase in China's foreign exchange reservesduring the month, the administration said. China's economy continued to register steady and improving performance,with development resilience further strengthening, providing solidsupport in the quest to keep the scale of foreign exchange reservesbasically stable, it added. (Source: Xinhua) 2. Chinese authorities on Friday announced moves to strengthen regulatoryoversight for virtual currencies and