Morning Insight: July 30, 2026

Morning Insight:July 30, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen WuCertification：Z0024232wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Container Freight Index (Europe Route):Geopolitical Risk Premium andSpread Repair Have Largely Run Their Course Last week's sharp rally in EC futures was primarily driven by thecombination of a renewed geopolitical risk premium and the narrowing ofthe deep discount in the EC2608 contract. However, the scope for furtherspread normalization now appears limited. Fundamentally, the Europe route remains characterized by weak spot-marketmomentum and broadly fair valuations. Cargo volumes continue to follow aclear seasonal downtrend, with mid-August expected to mark a key turningpoint as procurement by several major European retailers is likely todecline significantly. Week 32 freight rates are expected to averagearound USD 4,700/FEU, equivalent to an SCFIS reading of approximately3,300, while freight rates are still expected to trend lower through theend of September. The EC2608 contract is currently trading at broadly fair value, with a2,700–3,100 point range viewed as the appropriate short-term tradingband. For the EC2609 and EC2610 contracts, the downward fundamental trendremains intact, although geopolitical developments may continue togenerate intermittent price volatility. Further along the curve, EC2612 and EC2701 remain more suitable for longpositions aimed at capturing the healthier medium-term fundamentals andthe earnings potential of shipping lines during the peak season. Overall, the Europe container freight market is expected to remain range-bound in the near term. Investors should monitor any renewed geopolitical risk premium as a potential opportunity to establish light shortpositions in deferred contracts. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China will bolster the open sharing and integrated use of data in thesci-tech finance sector to better fuel high-level technological self-reliance and channel more efficient financial support to innovativeenterprises, according to a joint notice issued on Wednesday by ninegovernment departments, including the People's Bank of China. The notice unveils the first version of a national catalog for sci-techfinance data development and utilization, covering 26 data indicatorsacross eight major categories, such as enterprise rosters, innovationcapability assessments, and enterprise needs. It encourages localities tocraft region-specific data utilization lists and build supportinginformation infrastructure. Authorized institutions are permitted to use public sci-tech data in astandardized manner, and local governments are urged to provideenterprises with authorized access channels, promote information queryservices, and support joint modeling initiatives. Pilot programs for trusted data spaces in sci-tech finance will be rolledout in eligible regions, where corporate cash-flow data will be betterexploited and industry research information platforms established.Market-oriented credit reporting agencies are encouraged to developspecialized databases for tech-based firms and diversify their credit product offerings. Financial institutions will be guided to use these databases to builddigital credit profiles for tech companies, develop tailored risk-controland investment models, and design financing products that suit thespecific needs of niche industries. They arealso encouraged to team upwith relevant authorities to analyze capital flows along industrialchains, map out key industry chains, and precisely match financialresources. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China has released its 15th Five-Year Plan for the postal industry,outlining 10 major tasks including improving services and acceleratingthe development of a modern delivery and logistics network.Jointly issued by the State Post Bureau and several other governmentagencies, the blueprint also sets specific quantitative targets for 2030.In 2030, the postal industry's total business revenue is expected toreach 2.4 trillion yuan (about 353.47 billion U.S. dollars), with overalldelivery volume hitting 290 billion pieces. Express delivery alone isprojected to generate 2 trillion yuan from270 billion parcels.The targets reflect a strong push to bridge urban-rural gaps, with maildelivery reaching 90 percent of administrative villages at least fivetimes a week by 2030. In terms of service performance, the plan calls for a 72-hour on-timedelivery rate of 88 percent in key regions. In line with broader environmental goals, the plan expects that 80percent of packaging used by express delivery companies shall meet greenstandards by 2030. Over the next five years, the country will intensify efforts to curbinvolution-style competition in the postal sector, foster innovation, andupgrade services to improve quality, d