Morning Insight: July 9, 2026

Morning Insight:July 9, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Crude Oil:Geopolitical risk premium has partially returned as floatingstorage draws to an end. Although the immediate U.S.–Iran conflict has subsided, tensionssurrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. Iran has continuedtargeting commercial vessels along the Omani shipping corridor in aneffort to strengthen its control over the northern shipping lane,allowing geopolitical risk premium to gradually return to oil prices.On the supply side, the rapid release of floating storage in the PersianGulf previously boosted exports by 5–8 million barrels per day (mbpd).However, only around 8 million barrels of floating storage now remains,suggesting this temporary supply boost is nearing its end. Looking ahead,production recovery is expected to proceed gradually, with only 0.5–0.6mbpd of additional output likely to return during July, implying asignificant slowdown in export growth. Meanwhile, Russia's exportsanction waiver expired on June 17, potentially removing over 1 mbpd ofsupply from the market. At the same time, global Strategic PetroleumReserve (SPR) releases are set to decline sharply—from roughly 70 millionbarrels per month to around 22 million barrels in July, reducing supplyby approximately 1.3 mbpd on a daily basis. In addition, U.S. exports toEurope and Asia, which increased by 1.5–2.0 mbpd during the conflict dueto arbitrage opportunities, are also expected to gradually normalize asthose arbitrage windowsclose.On the demand side, Asian consumption continues to improve. Refinery runs in India, Japan, and South Korea are increasing, while China's demand could strengthen further if restrictions on refined product exports areeased, potentially adding around 1 mbpd of monthly demand. Overall, the global supply-demand balance is expected to tightenmeaningfully in July compared with June. Excluding China, global crudeinventories have already fallen to their lowest level in more than adecade. Although calendar spreads have largely normalized and oil pricesmay soften temporarily if geopolitical tensions continue to ease, webelieve the market still has supportive fundamentals heading into thethird quarter, leaving room for renewed upside later in the quarter. Sugar:Weak spot fundamentals but strengthening expectations; weatherremains the key variable. In the international market, fundamental expectations continue to improveat the margin. Brazil's share of sugarcane allocated to sugar productionremains below last year's level, while strong El Niño conditions areexpected to reduce sugar output in bothIndia and Thailand. Domestically, however, the market continues to face headwinds fromabundant production and high inventories. Off-quota import costs remainbelow domestic production costs, keeping import volumes elevated, whilesugar beet warehouse receipt overhang continues to weigh on the market.Overall, Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR) are expected to continue trackingthe direction of ICE raw sugar futures, with the trading focus centeredon the pace and composition of imports. As sugarcane is a water-intensivecrop, Typhoon Maysak is expected to have only a limited overall impact onsugar production in Guangxi. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. Chinese authorities have issued a guideline to accelerate theinnovative development of the retail industry, aiming to establish amodern retail system and cultivate a number of globally competitiveretail enterprises by 2030. The guideline, released by multiple government departments including theMinistry of Commerce, outlines key tasks ranging from system planning forthe industry's layout to encouraging new supplies and creating newconsumer demand, aimed at boosting the innovative transformation andhigh-quality development of the retail sector. (Source: Xinhua) 2. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said on Wednesday that it willcontinue to apply an appropriately accommodative monetary policy,following the latest quarterly meeting of its monetary policy committee,where the committee deliberated on the policy direction for the comingmonths. The central bank will strengthen counter and cross-cyclical adjustments,better leverage the dual functions of monetary policy tools in bothaggregate and structural terms, and enhance coordination between monetaryand fiscal policies to promote steady economic growth and a reasonablerebound in prices, it said. The meeting also called for strengthening the guiding role of the centralbank’s policy interest rates and improving the market-based interest rateformation and transmission mechanism. It urged efforts to regulate business activities in the credit market,lower intermediary financing charges, and keep over