Morning Insight：July 2，2026

Morning Insight:July 2, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Container Freight Index (Europe):Near-term pressure is likely topersist, with the August contract potentially overshooting to thedownside before staging a recovery. The EC futures market declined sharply yesterday, with the most-activeEC2608 contract falling 11% on increased trading volume and openinterest. Fundamentally, the supply-demand balance has begun to easemarginally in early July. Vessel utilization has become increasinglypolarized across carriers, and the inflection point in freight ratelevels has largely emerged, suggesting that the strong upward momentum inspot rates has faded. However, supported by long-term contract cargoes,freight rates are unlikely to experience a disorderly collapse duringJuly. From a trading perspective, the EC2607 contract is entering the deliveryphase amid declining open interest and is expected to fluctuate withinthe 3,600–3,700 point range in the near term. Subsequent price movementswill largely depend on carriers' freight rate quotations for the secondhalf of July. In contrast, the EC2608 and deferred contracts currentlylack strong fundamental catalysts, with market participants increasinglytrading the narrative of declining freight rates following the market'sapparent inflection point. As a result, the August contract is exhibitinga market characterized by strong short-term momentum and relatively weakvaluation support, leading to intensified positioning and tradingactivity. Historically, the EC2608 contract has typically traded at an 8%–15% discount to the July contract, with the discount reaching as much as 25%in extreme cases, such as in 2016. Although this year's August contracthas a later delivery schedule—effectively extending the potential freightrate decline window by roughly one additional week compared with previousyears and therefore justifying a somewhat more conservative valuation—even under this framework, the current market has already priced in adiscount close to historical extremes. Consequently, the August contractmay offer an opportunity for a technical rebound following an oversolddecline. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China, as the world's largest developing country, will continue tostrengthen cooperation with the World Bank in addressing globalchallenges and attach greater importance to knowledge cooperation, anofficial with the Ministry of Finance said Wednesday. While promoting its domestic high-quality development, China will alsosupport the vast number of developing countries in realizing commonprosperity, the official said when responding to a query concerningChina-related loan arrangements under the World Bank's new CountryPartnership Framework for China. Over the past 40-plus years, China and the World Bank have carried outfruitful cooperation and forged an all-round partnership, which has madepositive contributions to China's reform and opening up as well as globalpoverty reduction and development endeavors, the official said. "As China's overall national strength has improved substantially, thescale of the World Bank loans to China has been declining gradually inrecent years. This is a natural outcome of changes in domestic demand andthe transformation of cooperation betweenthe two sides, and is in linewith international practices of the evolution of cooperation between manymember states and the World Bank," the official noted. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China's trade in services expanded 6 percent year on year in the firstfive months of 2026, with exports of travel and knowledge-intensiveservices reporting particularly strong growth, official data showed onWednesday. The total value of service imports and exports reached nearly 3.1trillion yuan (about 455.4 billion U.S. dollars) from January to May thisyear, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce. A breakdown of the data showed that service exports rose 15.9 percent to1.23 trillion yuan, while imports edged up 0.4 percent to 1.87 trillionyuan. The service trade deficit narrowed by 160.72 billion yuan from oneyear earlier to 638.56 billion yuan. During the period, knowledge-intensive service trade increased 5.4percent year on year to 1.37 trillion yuan, accounting for 44.2 percentof all service trade. Exports of knowledge-intensive services jumped 12.2 percent to 667.75billion yuan, with charges for the use of intellectual property andpersonal cultural and entertainment services surging 64.9 percent and50.1 percent, respectively. Travel service exports grew at the fastest rate among the top fiveservice export sectors, rising 31.3 percent to 188.5 billion yuan.Imports of transport services totaled 402.52 billion yuan, up 26.7percent, markin