Morning Insight: June 11, 2026

Morning Insight:June 11, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Copper:Liquidity risks are weighing on prices, but underlyingfundamentals continue to provide support. The moderation in US core inflation has offered some relief on theinterest rate front, easing immediate concerns over further policytightening. However, the renewed escalation of the US-Iran conflict hastriggered a sharp rise in crude oil prices, intensifying market concernsover inflation. At the same time, liquidity risks in US equity marketshave resurfaced. The recent rapid correction in US stocks has spilledover into other risk assets, exerting downward pressure on broadercommodity markets, including copper. Nevertheless, copper's underlying fundamentals remain supportive and mayhelp cushion the downside. Global copper mine supply continues to facepersistent tightness, while copper concentrate treatment charges (TCs)have repeatedly fallen to new lows, underscoring the strain in theupstream market. In addition, should the Strait of Hormuz remaindisrupted into the third quarter, tightening sulfur supply couldincreasingly constrain African hydrometallurgical copper production,further reinforcing expectations of supply-side disruptions. On the demand side, industries associated with the global "new productiveforces" theme—including AI, semiconductors, and renewable energy—continue to benefit from supportive policies and capital allocation,positioning them as key drivers of economic growth. Going forward, marketparticipants should pay close attention to capital flows followingupcoming IPOs in the UStechnology sector, as these may influence sentiment and investment trends across industrial metals.Meanwhile, the price spread between COMEX and LME copper remainselevated, sustaining expectations that global copper inventories maycontinue to flow toward the United States. Reflecting this dynamic, theproportion of cancelled warrants on the LME has risen to around 38%, arelatively high level that points to ongoing tightness in exchange-available inventories outside the US. Overall, while macroeconomic headwinds and liquidity concerns continue topressure copper prices, resilient fundamentals are providing meaningfulresistance to further declines. The lack of alignment between macrodrivers and micro fundamentals has increased the complexity of thetrading environment, suggesting that investorsshould remain cautious andadopt a disciplined approach to positioning. Precious Metals:Near-term downside pressure persists, while the medium-to long-term structural bullish case remains intact. Following the release of the stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolldata last Friday evening, precious metals sold off sharply as marketsinitially interpreted the move as pricing in renewed expectations ofFederal Reserve tightening. However, the underlying driver at that stageappeared to be broader deleveraging across increasingly crowded AI-related equity trades, with gold and silver—given their relatively strongliquidity—becoming sources of funds and consequently coming underpressure. By Tuesday evening, however, market dynamics had shifted in a more subtleway. The second leg lower appeared to be driven less by macro repricingand more by active selling pressure from bears repeatedly targeting longpositioning. The willingness and capacity of bulls to defend theirpositions appeared limited, resulting in a weaker market structure. Froma technical perspective, there is currently no obvious strong supportlevel immediately below prevailing prices. Several upcoming events may continue to challenge the precious metals complex over the coming days, including Oracle's earnings release, theSpaceX listing, and the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, US MayCPI data released overnight showed headline inflation at 4.2%, in linewith market expectations, while core CPIrose 0.2% month-over-month,coming in below expectations. Market sentiment stabilized in the hoursfollowing the release, suggesting a degree of "sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact" or exhaustion of bearish momentum after the inflation data.Even so, pressure from gold bears remains evident. While silver continuesto exhibit relatively balanced two-way trading during its decline,reflecting ongoing contention between bulls and bears, gold hasexperienced a much smoother and more decisive sell-off. At the currentstage, meaningful rebounds in precious metals on a weekly horizon areunlikely unless triggered either by a technical recovery or by signalsfrom the Federal Reserve that materially diverge from prevailing policyexpectations. Accordingly, we do not recommend initiating new long positions atpresent. Investors should closely monitor shifts in market sentiment, aswell as signs of stabilization in both gold and broader equity markets.That said, the longer-term structural drivers underpinning preciousmetals—including ongoing globa