Morning Insight: June 8, 2026

Morning Insight:June 8, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Equity Index Futures:Near-term consolidation is likely to continue, withmarket focus shifting toward the implications of US-Iran negotiations forFederal Reserve policy expectations. Recent gains across global AI-related equities have led to increasinglycrowded positioning, making markets more sensitive to negative catalysts.In China, the TMT sector accounted for more than 40% of total A-shareturnover, contributing to deterioratingmarket breadth and prompting anearlier correction. Overseas markets subsequently followed suit. LastWednesday, AI custom-chip leader Broadcom reported second-quarter resultsthat failed to meet some investors’exceptionally high expectations,leading to a post-earnings share price decline of more than 13%. OnFriday, South Korea’s KOSPI index fell by more than 5%. Later thatevening, stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payroll data reignitedconcerns about further monetary tightening, triggering significantvolatility across US technology stocks. Looking ahead, the earlier correction in A-shares has partially mitigatedthe impact of the sharp decline in US equities last Friday. However, themarket currently lacks a new technology-driven narrative capable ofsupporting another leg higher, suggesting that dip-buying interest mayremain limited. At the same time, the market’s primary driver isgradually shifting toward expectations surrounding Federal Reservepolicy, which remain highly uncertain. This week, the release of US CPI and PPI data will be closely monitored.Should inflation come in above expectations, concerns regarding additional policy tightening could intensify further. On the other hand,President Trump has recently stated his intention to bring the MiddleEast conflict to an end as quickly as possible, making developments inthe region a key variable for markets. Ifshipping through the Strait ofHormuz resumes, expectations for a less restrictive Federal Reservepolicy path could improve materially, potentially creating conditions fora market recovery. In addition, SpaceX is scheduled to go public this week, and investorswill be watching whether the completion of the listing process canprovide renewed support for technology-sector sentiment. Overall, crowded positioning and concerns over tighter monetary policysuggest that markets may require further consolidation in the near term.However, a deeper correction could ultimately increase pressure for ashift toward a more accommodative policy environment—whether througheasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East or a broader“TACO”policy pivot—potentially laying the foundation for a market bottom andsubsequent recovery. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's foreign exchange reserves totaled 3.4422 trillion U.S. dollarsat the end of May 2026, up by 31.7 billion, or 0.93 percent, from the endof April, official data showed Sunday. In May, affected by factors including the global macroeconomicenvironment and monetary policy outlooks of major economies, the U.S.dollar index rose, while prices of major global financial assets sawoverall growth, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said in a statement. The combined effect of factors such as foreign exchange translation andchanges in asset prices drove the rise of the foreign exchange reservesize in May, it said. China's economy is maintaining a momentum of steady growth, showing solidprogress in advancing high-quality development, which underpins theoverall stability of the country's foreign exchange reserve size, itnoted. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China will further refine regulatory mechanisms for program tradingand step up efforts to buildfirst-class investment institutions, said WuQing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), onSaturday. With a greater emphasis on fairness and standardization, efforts will bemade to effectively prevent the abuse of technological advantages andresolutely crack down on illegal activities such as market manipulationand the disruption of market order, Wu said at a meeting of the AssetManagement Association of China. To foster first-class investment institutions, Wu stressed the importanceof prioritizing compliance, investor interests, functional roles, andinnovation. He noted that the CSRC is formulating a three-year action plan toimplement relevant guidelines and is working to establish aninstitutional framework covering market access, ongoing supervision, riskmitigation, and service development. Emphasizing investor interests, Wu urged both public and private funds tostrictly uphold their fiduciary duties and accelerate the shift from afocus on scale to a focus on returns. Highlighting the role